ATP Finals: Sinner vs. Shelton & Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime | Previews, Picks, Where to Watch
Either the German or Canadian will advance out of the Bjorn Borg Group with the home favorite.
Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton
🤜 Head to Head: Sinner leads 7-1 (3-0 in 2025)
- Sinner d. Shelton 7-6 (2),6-2, 6-2—Australian Open semifinal
- Sinner d. Shelton 7-6 (2), 6-4, 6-4—Wimbledon quarterfinal
- Sinner d. Shelton 6-3, 6-3—Paris Masters quarterfinal
The Preview: In terms of this tournament, Friday’s opening match is meaningless. Sinner has already qualified for the semifinals, and Shelton has already been eliminated from them. In terms of Sinner’s season, though, there may be something for him to play for. If Carlos Alcaraz loses to Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday, Sinner will still have a chance to finish the season No. 1, if he can go 5-0 in Turin. If Alcaraz beats Musetti, that point will be moot, and the Spaniard will finish 2025 at the top.
Even if neither of these guys has any direct motivation to win, the match should—or at least could—be competitive.
Shelton is 0-2 this week, but he has played well enough to have chances in both of his previous rounds, and he won’t want to leave his Turin debut winless, if he can possibly help it.
As for Sinner, even if he no longer needs to go undefeated, he does have a win streak to continue—he has won seven straight at the ATP Finals going back to his flawless run from 2024. He also has a home crowd to please, which is something he seems to care about.
Motivations aside, the head-to-head says that Sinner will be the clear favorite. He’s 7-1 against Shelton; the American’s only win came in their first match, 7-6 in the third, in Shanghai in 2023. Since then, Sinner hasn’t dropped a set. Shelton’s lefty serve spins into Sinner’s strong backhand return, and the Italian hits with superior pace and accuracy from the baseline. This year, they played in the semifinals at the Australian Open, and the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, and Sinner won all six sets.
Does Shelton have any reason to hope? I’ll say two things.
In six of their last seven meetings, he did push one set to a tiebreaker, so it may be a matter of him winning a few big points that he usually loses to Sinner.
And while Shelton may be weary after a long season, this is a chance for him to set a new marker for the future. This season was proof that, if he wants to win majors, he’s going to have go through Sinner. It seems like a moment when he could—possibly, maybe—catch him a little off guard and start to gain some belief against him.
The Pick: Sinner
Alexander Zverev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
🤜 Head to Head: Zverev leads 6-3 (0-1 in 2025)
- Auger-Aliassime d. Zverev 4-6, 7-6 (7), 6-4, 6-4—US Open third round
The Preview: The first match means nothing as far as the semifinals go. The second match means everything.
Zverev and Auger-Aliassime will play for a spot in the final four, straight up. The winner is in, the loser is out, no matter how many sets it goes.
It’s a tough pick. Both guys beat Shelton and lost to Sinner this week. While Zverev leads their head-to-head 6-3, they’re 3-3 since 2021, and FAA won their only meeting in 2025, in four sets, at the US Open.
Zverev is the safer choice. He’s been higher-ranked than Auger-Aliassime for the entirety of their careers. He has won this event twice, while Auger-Aliassime has never made the semifinals. FAA has a good serve, but Zverev has a better one, and he’s a steadier baseline presence.
But Zverev has had a meandering and somber year, and that hasn’t changed this fall. I’ll take Auger-Aliassime based on his late-season momentum, the confidence in close matches that he has built up, and his will to attack.
The Pick: Auger-Aliassime
📅 Order of Play: Friday, Nov. 14
Heliovaara/Patten vs. Arevalo/Pavic
— 5:30 AM ET
Sinner vs. Shelton
— 8:00 AM ET
Salisbury/Skupski vs. Harrison/King
— 12:00 PM ET
Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime
— 2:30 PM ET
📲🖥️ Stream all the action from the ATP Finals on the Tennis Channel App!