Australian Open Tip Sheet: How we're betting Jannik Sinner vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas, plus three other picks we like
Tsitsipas has dominated his head-to-head series with Sinner, but we like the Italian to stay competitive in Melbourne.
MATCH POINT: Tsitsipas takes out Sinner at last year's Australian Open
We have been doing well with our 2023 Australian Open betting picks thus far—follow along on @tennisbets—and we’re hoping to keep the momentum going with a profitable Day 7.
Sebastian Korda vs. Hubert Hurkacz
It’s nerve-wracking betting on someone in a let-down spot, which is exactly what this is for Korda. The American is coming off the biggest win of his career, defeating 2022 Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. But Korda isn’t just having a great week, he has been excellent since the calendar flipped to 2023. This looks like the beginning of a run to the ATP Top 10, and it’s hard not to like him in a match-up with Hurkacz. The Polish 25-year-old needed five grueling sets to beat Denis Shapovalov and he also played a five-setter against Lorenzo Sonego. Korda also happens to be the more complete player. BEST BET: Korda -1.5 Games (-140)
Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek
We were on the wrong side of Rybakina’s meeting with Danielle Collins, but that one pinned us in difficult position: they were both players that we identified as our favorite value plays to win the Australian Open before the tournament. And with one of them now officially eliminated, we have no problem backing the other to go out and give Swiatek some trouble. The world No. 1 entered this event with some question marks, but she has looked untouchable thus far. But Swiatek hasn’t faced anyone as good as Rybakina, who has the all-court game to keep this one tighter than expected. We also like that Rybakina was able to emerge from her battle with Collins, as she has shown she can win a big match in hot conditions. LEAN: Rybakina To Win A Set (+105)
Jannik Sinner vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
This has been a very tough match-up for Sinner in the past: he's 1-4 against Tsitsipas. And over the last three matches they’ve played, the Italian hasn’t won a single set. But we’re banking on this one going a bit differently. Whereas Tsitsipas has plateaued over the last year or so, Sinner has continued to make improvements to his game. The lanky youngster has less holes in his game than ever, with his serve being the biggest question mark. But we're seen improvements in that pivotal shot, too, and if he can Tsitsipas at bay, Sinner should be able to keep this match close. Look for the 21-year-old to attack Tsitsipas’ backhand, which can get leaky enough to lose him matches. LEAN: Sinner +4.5 Games (-125)
Jiri Lehecka vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Auger-Aliassime has to be feeling the effects of having played 13 sets through three matches, and he now faces a red-hot opponent. Lehecka has notched some impressive wins in Melbourne thus far, knocking out Borna Coric, Christopher Eubanks and Cam Norrie. The Czech might not have the goods to oust a player of Auger-Aliassime’s level, but we like his chances of winning a set. And the value on taking the Over on the game total is a lot better than backing him on the +2.5-set spread. LEAN: Over 37.5 Games (-115)