Everything But a White Jacket

by Pete Bodo

Good evening, Mr. Djokovic, my name is Roger Federer and I'll be your server tonight.

What will it be? Wicked angled ace out wide? Slider down the middle? Perhaps a kicker, with a dash of spicy mustard? And so it went, as The Mighty Fed halted Djokovic's torrid Asian streak in the semifinals of the Shanghai Masters, 7-5, 6-4. In the process of booking his place opposite Andy Murray in tomorrow's final, Federer checked off a number of boxes on his rematch to-do list. They included:

Serve above 55 percent: Although Djokovic's 64 percent first serve conversion rate was two percentage points better than Federer's, it wasn't about Novak's serve—at least not on Roger's side of the net. He needed to serve well to keep Djokovic's lethal return in check, and he accomplished that.

Take advantage of your opportunities: That's a broad term for one of the most critical shortcomings TMF has had in a number of recent matches, the inability to take advantage of break points. Against Djokovic, he converted three of his four break points. By contrast, Djokovic was able to capitalize on only one of five of the break points he earned. Federer's serve had as much to with that latter stat, as did Djokovic's return.

Mind your winner-to-error ratio: Federer hit 30 winners and made 24 unforced errors, a +6 differential. Novak, at 22:30, finished with a -8. That's basically a 14-point swing, which is three and-a-half games worth of points. Of course, it's never that clear-cut or easy—there are points and then there are. . .points. But when you look at this stat in conjunction with the break-point success differential, you can see why this match wasn't exactly a classic.

Pressure Djokovic until something breaks: Djokovic has played a lot of tennis, and as strong as he's looked in Shanghai despite having to work an extra day last week in Beijing, at some point fatigue—mental, physical, or both—kicks in, and you can help ensure that it does by applying steady pressure. One of TMF's great virtues is the speed at which he plays. There's none of this bouncing the ball 40 times, or communing with the spirit of Ellsworth Vines or Henri Cochet before Roger steps in to serve it up.

Federer plays at a pace that confirms that he's all business. And as he hits a relatively flat ball—flatter all the time, especially on the forehand side, from what I can see—the end result is a pretty quick pace of play, just what you want when the guy on the other side has the look of a marathon runner at mile 21. It doesn't matter how tired, or not, that runner looks. He's settled into his pace, and in some way he's on auto-pilot. Keep him there, if you can keep your nose slightly out front. Federer did a masterful job containing Djokovic today. It was a loose leash, but a leash nonetheless.

Most important, though, Federer tightened up his game when it was imperative for him to do so, to keep Djokovic from coming alive or experiencing a rush of adrenalin. Taking advantage of what probably was a measure of weariness in Djokovic after he lost the first set, Federer quickly jumped out to a double-break lead in the second set at 4-1. But at that point he played a horrendous game, donating his next service game to Djokovic. In the next game, Djokovic held with an ace to crawl to within 3-4. And that's exactly the point where you had to wonder—is Federer going to further complicate his life by losing his resolve, or confidence?

Federer started with ace and jumped to 40-0, but Djokovic closed the gap to 40-30. It was crunch time, and Federer responded by crunching a serve that Djokovic drove out. Although Djokovic held the next game with aplomb, Federer closed it out with a commanding service game.

Thus, the lapse at 4-1 was nothing more than a brief brain cramp—the kind of glitch a veteran with a remarkable record of success can be forgiven now and then. The important thing is that he forgive himself, which Federer did. These mental blackouts are going to happen, and happen more frequently in the coming days. It's something to which all older players must grow accustomed. There's no way to avoid them, therefore the only solution to the problems they pose is to recognize them for what they are—signs of the general mental fatigue that becomes the lot of everyone who's been to the well of success as often as has Federer. Count your lucky stars that the prospect of winning the match doesn't exactly loom as a career-defining moment.

Andy Murray will pose a different set of problems for Federer tomorrow. He'll probably try to stretch out and nudge Federer into corners where he's less comfortable than over on that backhand side, looking to tee up an inside-out forehand. But judging from the way Federer has played in Shanghai, Murray will have his work cut out.