Expert Picks, Madrid Open: Who will win, who needs a deep run, and who are we watching closely?
Concensus on the men's side? Not this week.
Men’s Champion and Runner-Up
Peter Bodo: Lorenzo Musetti d. Holger Rune
Liya Davidov: Carlos Alcaraz d. Andrey Rublev
Jon Levey: Arthur Fils d. Alex de Minaur
Stephanie Livaudais: Novak Djokovic d. Holger Rune
Ed McGrogan: Alexander Zverev d. Novak Djokovic
Women’s Champion and Runner-Up
Peter Bodo: Jasmine Paolini d. Iga Swiatek
Liya Davidov: Aryna Sabalenka d. Jelena Ostapenko
Jon Levey: Jasmine Paolini d. Emma Navarro
Stephanie Livaudais: Jasmine Paolini d. Mirra Andreeva
Ed McGrogan: Iga Swiatek d. Jasmine Paolini
Men’s Player That Needs a Deep Run
Peter Bodo: Sure, all-time Grand Slam singles champ Novak Djokovic is playing with house money any time he enters a tournament at age 37. But a deep run would really help him assess his fitness and condition as he targets Roland Garros, with its five-set matches and variable weather.
Liya Davidov: Falling out of the Top 10 is proof that the players around Casper Ruud continue adapting to the evolution of men's tennis. Whether it be his tennis game or his mentality that needs adjusting, Ruud's got to figure something out sooner than later, and what better time to reignite his presence than at the beginning of the clay season?
Jon Levey: Not long ago Casper Ruud looked like a future Roland Garros champ. Reaching two straight finals (2022-23) creates that impression. However, the Norwegian is no longer giving off favorite vibes. Taking a few wins at a Masters 1000 event—a level where he has yet to win a title—could put him back in the conversation.
Stephanie Livaudais: Andrey Rublev has shown positive progress since adding Marat Safin to his coaching team a few weeks ago, but could drop outside the Top 10 after last year’s Madrid points come off. He’ll need a deep run to prove to doubters, and to himself, that he’s on the right track.
Ed McGrogan: Taylor Fritz: It's his first clay-court match of the season—why the rush? Well, Roland Garros is just over a month away, and if Fritz has any designs on going deep in Paris, he’ll want to hang onto his No. 4 ranking. To do that, he’ll need to defend semifinal points from last year.
Women’s Player That Needs a Deep Run
Peter Bodo: What would you have thought if someone told you at the beginning of this year that Iga Swiatek would not reach a single tournament final through April? But the WTA No. 2’s home court is clay, and it’s the ideal place for her to relocate her mojo.
Liya Davidov: Now is the perfect time for Paula Badosa to win her first clay-court title since 2021. The excitement of her return to tennis has fizzled out, which means the external pressures are elsewhere. A deep run alone would be a confidence boost for the Spaniard as the clay swing picks up.
Jon Levey: The draw gods have not been kind to Iga Swiatek. Her first three opponents could potentially be players that have had recent success against her, including career riddle Jelena Ostapenko (0-6 lifetime). The clay season is supposed to be Swiatek’s time of year; she could use some Ws to keep it that way.
Stephanie Livaudais: Nearly half of Iga Swiatek’s ranking points come from clay-court events, meaning she’s staring over the edge of a rankings cliff if she can’t make a deep run in Madrid. What’s even trickier is that Jelena Ostapenko, who now leads their head-to-head 6-0, looms in her draw as a possible fourth-round opponent.
Ed McGrogan: Madison Keys. Her year is a success no matter what, but the Australian Open champion is just 2-3 in her last five, with all losses in straight sets—one being 6-0, 6-1, to Aryna Sabalenka. Keys has the power to win anywhere, Madrid included.
Off-the-Radar Player We’re Following
Peter Bodo: Sofia Kenin has been an enigmatic competitor since not shortly after her sensational triumph at age 21 at the Australian Open in 2020. Clearly, she has had difficulty dealing with the disruption of overnight success, falling all the way from No. 4 to outside the Top 200. But her game is still beguiling, and she’s worked her way back up to No. 32.
Liya Davidov: Sitting just outside the Top 20 is Francisco Cerundolo, whose game is made for clay. He could easily reach the round of 16 in Madrid, where he could face top seed Alexander Zverev—who he’s 2-0 against on clay. The Argentinian could make big moves in Madrid, carrying into his 2025 summer run.
Jon Levey: The last time we saw Amanda Anisimova she was making a deep run in Charleston before retiring in the semifinals with an injury. Her game is probably best-suited to faster surfaces, but there’s evidence to believe her fearless ball-striking can translate to success on clay as well.
Stephanie Livaudais: Francisco Cerundolo isn’t just one to watch during the Golden Swing or Miami. The Latin American No. 1 loves playing on European clay, too, reaching the quarterfinals in Madrid last year and coming into this year’s event fresh off a semifinal run in Munich.
Ed McGrogan: Before Alexandra Eala, there was Coleman Wong. Both shined in Miami (the former for longer), and both return to big-time action in Madrid. Wong gets 373rd-ranked Federico Cina to open, then would face Sebastian Korda—and perhaps Casper Ruud after that. All seem beatable at the moment.