Feddy Krueger

by Pete Bodo

So what was that we were saying about Rafael Nadal surging in London to unexpectedly snatch the year-end no. 1 ranking out of Roger Federer's hands?  We aren't even in the semifinal stage at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals yet, and the one thing we can say about that story line is: It ain't gonna happen. Period.

Granted, that's a fairly harsh way to put it; I feel for Nadal and his fans. But let's look at it from Federer's perspective. For years now, Nadal has been The Guy Who Won't Go Away. . . Yet even when the worst-case scenario for Federer came to pass in that regard (at Wimbledon, in 2008), it was more plot twist than surprise ending (to Federer's dominance). In that regard, the events of the past few days in London have an almost symbolic cast, painful as it may be for as game and good-natured a manchild as Nadal.

Coming into the WTF, Federer appeared vulnerable, and not just to a Nadal assault on his ranking. He made the final in Basel, but lost that to Novak Djokovic; he was knocked out in his first match at the BNP Paribas Masters. Meanwhile, Djokovic appeared to be on fire, Nadal seemed (at times, at least) his old swashbuckling self, and Andy Murray played on everyone's mind (I'm Andy Murray - that's what I do!) , what with that gaudy 6-3 head-to-head record against Federer.

So what happened? Nadal flamed - or is it sputtered? - out. And today, Djokovic played a match so listless that I heard the gerund, "tanking", flung around, and Federer - well, he merely went out and, after a shaky start (even mere plot twists ought to be properly set up), he spanked Murray. Yes, The Mighty Fed still has a forehand. And he appears to have more competitive lives than the slasher-movie icon, Freddy Krueger.

Granted, Murray could wind up joining del Potro in the semifinals, leaving Federer out in the cold. But in handling Murray he reasserted his sovreignty. The real prize for Federer this week isn't the title, although he might find it satisfying to win the WTF for a fifth time. The real trophy is the year-end no. 1 ranking, and he's already got it.

And if Federer does advance to the semis -odds are that he will - he may have another encounter with the gift that keeps giving, Robin Soderling (who's already assured a spot in the semis). Federer has squared off with Soderling on a statistically outlandish three occasions this year in majors - their fourth encounter was at a mere Masters Series event.

So far, Federer has lost just one set to the man who's purpose-driven life is summed up in two words: Beat Nadal. But let's add an asterisk: five of the 10 sets the men have played ended in crap-shoot tiebreakers. That ought to give Soderling fans reason to hope, despite the fact that the career head-to-head is ugly: 12-0 to Federer. It makes you think that at some point, Soderling sat down with himself and decided:  Hail, I can't beat Federer, let me try the next best thing. He's now 2-3 against Nadal. Make of it what you will.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. I'll have a special surprise holiday post for you tomorrow from a frequent TennisWorld contributor who's publishing a new book next week. So drop in to say hello.