Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Jelena Ostapenko vs. Daria Kasatkina, Adelaide
The Latvian has won three straight in this match-up, but it's hard to rule the Russian out in this spot.
On Saturday, January 13, Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina will clash for the Adelaide International title. Ostapenko booked her spot in the final with a 6-2, 7-6 (3) win over Ekaterina Alexandrova; she has now beaten Alexandrova, Marta Kostyuk, Caroline Garcia and Sorana Cirstea this week. Meanwhile, Kasatkina avoided having to face Jessica Pegula in the semifinals, as the American withdrew with an illness. That was the second consecutive walkover for Kasatkina; she has only won two actual matches this week, over Claire Liu and Anna Kalinskaya.
Their paths to the final surely means that Ostapenko is the more battle-tested player. But there are reasons to bet on both players.
Why to bet on Jelena Ostapenko
- Ostapenko has won three matches in a row against Kasatkina.
- Ostapenko is 5-2 against Kasatkina overall.
- Ostapenko has a much higher hold percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. In that span, Ostapenko is holding 67.8% of the time, but Kasatkina is holding just 57.5% of the time.
- Ostapenko has an ace percentage of 4.7% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, a much better number than Kasatkina’s 1.5% ace percentage in that span.
- Ostapenko won a title in Birmingham last year, defeating Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets. She's 1-0 in finals over the last 52 weeks, while Kasatkina is 0-2 in finals in that same span.
- Ostapenko is 4-2 in hard-court tiebreakers over the last 52 weeks,while Kasatkina is just 4-5 in that span. That could mean a big edge for the Latvian if this match ends up being close.
Why to bet on Daria Kasatkina
- While Kasatkina has a losing record against Ostapenko, she won their only previous meeting on a hard court. That was a dominant 6-3, 6-2 win at the 2017 US Open.
- Kasatkina has won 12 of her 16 matches she has played, starting last October.
- Kasatkina had some serious service issues last year, but she’s holding at 65.4% since the start of 2024. That improved number makes her a lot more dangerous when combined with a hard-court break percentage of 42.3% over the last 52 weeks.
- Kasatkina has the third-highest break percentage on the WTA Tour over the last 52 weeks.
- While Ostapenko possesses as much power as anyone from the baseline—and happens to have her foot on the gas at all times—Kasatkina is one of the best movers in the women’s game. She’s going to fight and defend to the best of her ability, which could frustrate Ostapenko.
- Considering Kasatkina has gotten two walkovers, she should have a lot left in the tank for this match. That will allow her to defend her tail off, and she could have more energy than Ostapenko if this goes to a third set.