Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Jordan Thompson vs. Sebastian Korda, Washington
VALUE ALERT! The Australian doesn't deserve to be as heavy an underdog as he's priced.
On Friday, August 2, Sebastian Korda will look to get the better of Jordan Thompson. Korda, who I had as part of a winning two-leg parlay on Thursday, is only here because he hit one of the luckiest shots of the year. Thanasi Kokkinakis looked like he was about to put away a match point in the second set, but Korda somehow got his racquet on it and it dropped in. Korda then stole the second set, and Kokkinakis retired in the third with an injury.
Korda is unquestionably fortunate to still be in the tournament, which for him is all that matters. But the American’s performance was so lousy that it’s hard not to like Thompson as a big underdog today.
Korda has won two straight in Washington D.C., but the American was on a two-match slide before getting back on hard courts, and is just 24-16 on the year. His hold percentage is also down from last year, and he’s not returning as well as he did in 2021 or 2022. The American just looks a little lost out there, and he tends to be good for a bad miss when rallies go long.
Thompson is one of the most underrated players on the planet, and the Australian has been fantastic in 2024. Thompson’s 26-18 record this year gives him a career-high winning percentage of 59.1%. He has also won more matches this season than any other in his career—remarkable considering it’s only the beginning of August. Thompson is a rock-solid server, he can grind from the baseline, and he’s extremely competent at net. His ability to stay solid while constructing points is troubling for players that are prone to making mistakes.
I don’t think it’s crazy to expect Thompson to cruise through some service games, and I think his baseline play will extract errors out from Korda. The American might be the higher ranked player, and he definitely has more raw talent. That’s why he is favored. But Thompson has been better this season, and he has won nine of his last 12 matches. He’s in much better form, and I trust him a little more when it comes to solving problems on the court.
With all of that in mind, this price is hard to pass up.
Bet: Thompson ML (+150)