How Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek can clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking at the WTA Finals

There’s more on the line at the WTA Finals this week than just the fifth-biggest title of the year—the year-end No. 1 ranking is also up for grabs.

And it’s down to two women: Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.

Sabalenka's the favorite, coming into the year-end championships with 9,016 ranking points to Swiatek’s 7,970—a 1,046-point gap.

But it’s definitely within reach for Swiatek.

First of all, it’s important to know how ranking points are distributed at the WTA Finals. For each round-robin win a player earns 200 points, meaning it’s possible to amass 600 points in the round-robin stage alone. A semifinal win is 400 points, and a final win is 500 points.

So, there’s up to 1,500 points up for grabs for an undefeated champion in Riyadh, which is more than enough for Swiatek to pass Sabalenka.

But of course, Sabalenka will be earning points for each of her wins, too.

So how can each player clinch year-end No. 1?

Let’s start with Swiatek. First of all, she needs to win the title—but she doesn’t necessarily need to win it undefeated.

Swiatek will clinch year-end No. 1 if…
… she wins the title undefeated (1,500 points), Sabalenka wins maximum two round-robin matches (400 points) and doesn’t reach the final.
… she wins the title with a 2-1 round-robin record (1,300 points) and Sabalenka wins maximum one round-robin match (200 points) and doesn’t reach the final.
… she wins the title with a 1-2 round-robin record (1,100 points) and Sabalenka doesn’t win any round-robin matches (0 points).

Basically, Swiatek needs a combination of her and Sabalenka’s results that gives her more than the current 1,046-point gap.

Meanwhile, Sabalenka will clinch year-end No. 1 if…
… she wins all three of her round-robin matches.
… she wins two round-robin matches and reaches the final.
… she wins one round-robin match and reaches the final.

In all of those scenarios, it doesn’t matter how Swiatek does.

And more immediately, if Sabalenka wins her first two round-robin matches and Swiatek loses one of her first two round-robin matches, Sabalenka clinches the year-end No. 1 ranking for the first time.

It’s worth noting that we came into last year’s WTA Finals in almost exactly the same situation, and Swaitek pulled it off—she won the title undefeated and Sabalenka went 2-1 in the round robin and fell in the semifinals (to Swiatek), which was just enough for Swiatek to beat Sabalenka to the year-end No. 1 ranking in a photo finish.

Swiatek was the year-end No. 1 in 2022 and 2023, and if she does it again in 2024, she’ll be the first woman to finish three straight years as No. 1 since… the three years before that, when Ashleigh Barty topped the year-end rankings three years in a row in 2019, 2020 and 2021.