Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff, Jasmine Paolini vs. Mirra Andreeva: Roland Garros semifinal previews

Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff

Which mythical figure will Coco Gauff resemble on Thursday? David finally slaying her Goliath? Or Sisyphus rolling the boulder up the hill, only to see it come rolling right back down?

Gauff is 1-10 against Swiatek, and 0-4 on clay. Last summer, she recorded her lone win, in Cincinnati. Since then, though, Swiatek has regained the upper hand, winning three times in straight sets. The most recent of those matches came on clay in Rome last month; Gauff was in it for the first eight games, but lost 6-4, 6-3.

“I definitely think I have to find a better way to play her,” Gauff said on Tuesday. “I’ve obviously been unsuccessful the last couple of times we’ve played, regardless of the surface.”

In Cincy, Gauff had success serving big and looping high forehands to Swiatek’s backhand, which disrupted her rhythm and led to a flood of errors down the stretch. In Rome, Gauff came out with an ultra-aggressive game plan, going bigger on her serve and leaping into her backhand whenever she had the chance. It worked, until she missed a crucial drop shot at 4-4 in the first set, and Swiatek ran away with the match from there.

That’s the trouble with Swiatek, for Gauff and everyone else: One mistake, even an early one, is enough to cost you the match. Once Iga has a lead, she starts sprinting ahead. Unless you can do something to rush her or take her out of normal game, the chances are slim that she’s going to have an off-day, especially on clay, and especially in the semifinal at Roland Garros.

Gauff says she’ll huddle with her coaches and come up with a plan. Should she go back to the high-bouncing forehands that worked in Cincy? That tactic would seem to make sense on clay. Or should she try to take the initiative in the rallies? Naomi Osaka nearly made that work against Swiatek in the second round last week.

The flow, and possibly the result, of this match, may come down to one shot: Gauff’s forehand. Whether she slugs it or lofts it, can she make it an effective weapon? It would be a surprise, frankly, if the answer is yes. Winner: Swiatek

Jasmine Paolini vs. Mirra Andreeva

It had been an exceptionally orderly women’s event up until Wednesday afternoon. No. 1 Iga Swiatek and No. 3 Coco Gauff were in the semifinals, and No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 4 Elena Rybakina were heavily favored to join them.

Instead, we got the first big surprises of the fortnight, back to back. Paolini beat an erratic Rybakina 6-4 in the third set, and Andreeva beat an ill Sabalenka by the same score. Now, instead of a battle of favorites, the second semifinal on Thursday will be Cinderella city.

Andreeva is just 17, but she has already faced the 28-year-old Paolini once, a few weeks ago on clay in Madrid. The Russian won in two competitive sets, 7-6 (2), 6-4.

On paper, this one should also be competitive. Each woman has had good results on this surface in the past, and each is comfortable playing the defense necessary to win on it. As far as experience goes, while Paolini is 11 years older, they’ll both be playing their first Grand Slam semifinal. The 5'4" Paolini uses her speed and a versatile topspin forehand that she can send to either corner. Andreeva, five inches taller, has a stronger serve and a bigger backhand. Both showed off their movement and hand skills in their quarterfinal wins.

Both, not surprisingly, are expecting a battle.

“With Mirra, it’s going to be a tough match,” Paolini says. “I played against her in Madrid, and she’s really great player, I think. She’s so young but she’s so, so good mentally, and she can defend very well. She can serve well.”

"I remember our match in Madrid,” Andreeva said. “I remember that it was tough. She played really good tennis, and I after was able to catch up a little bit. So yeah, I’m sure that it will a great match.”

Might it come down to who can handle a lead better, and who can hold her nerve with a trip to a Grand Slam final on the line? If it does, I’ll take Andreeva. Paolini got tight when she was up a set and a break, and again when she served for the match in the third. Andreeva has had composure issues in the past, but she was calm against Sabalenka.

Focused, too. When her topspin lob touched down inside the baseline on match point, Andreeva took a few steps toward the other side of the court, before realizing that she had won the match. She said she pretended that she was trying to save a break point, rather than close out a Roland Garros quarterfinal. A lot of tennis players have tried something similar in tight situations, but she’s the first I’ve ever heard of who succeeded in fooling herself. That’s impressive. Winner: Andreeva