Joao Fonseca vs. Andrey Rublev headlines Day 3 at the Australian Open

Andrey Rublev vs. Joao Fonseca

Fonseca’s first name is pronounced, as far as this non-Portuguese speaker can tell, Zhoo-ow. Which is important to know, because you may be hearing it a lot in the years ahead. The 18-year-old Brazilian is the ATP’s prospect du jour. He was a world No. 1 junior, won the US Open boys’ title in 2023 and the Next Gen Finals last month, and qualified for the Australian Open without dropping a set. He’s also a powerfully built 6’1”, with a full-cut topspin forehand that already looks like a world-class weapon.

Joao has wowed the cognoscenti in recent months, as clips of that forehand have gone viral and he rolled to a title at a Challenger event Canberra. Now, against Rublev, we’ll see what he can do against Top 10 competition, and a player whose own forehand has always been a world-class weapon.

The Russian is volatile, as we know, and he’ll feel the pressure not to be sent packing by an 18-year-old, at a Slam where he has reached the quarterfinals the last two years. His pride, and his ranking, would take a hit.

Whatever the result, the rallies should be entertainingly explosive, and the information we’ll get about Fonseca and his future prospects will be valuable. Winner: Rublev

Emma Navarro vs. Peyton Stearns

A year ago, these two Americans were in largely the same boat, with seemingly the same prospects. Both were 22, both had won NCAA singles titles, both were ranked outside the Top 40, and both made up for what they lacked in size with what they owned in ball-striking talent and mental toughness.

Over the next 12 months, though, Navarro would separate herself from her sometime doubles partner, vaulting into the second week at Slams and into the Top 10. She also beat Stearns in their first and so far only WTA-level match, 6-4, 6-1, on grass at Bad Homburg.

On Tuesday, they’ll be first up in Rod Laver Arena, and Navarro, ranked 38 spots higher, will be the solid favorite. So far in 2025, though, she hasn’t been quite the same as she was in 2024. She’s 1-2, and has suffered two-set losses to Kimberly Birrel and Liudmila Samsonova. Are these ominous signs of a sophomore slump, as opponents unearth her weaknesses, and she feels the pressure of expectations? The fact that Navarro doesn’t get a lot of free points will always make her more vulnerable to off days and confidence drops than her stronger opponents.

Stearns herself is just 3-2 so far in 2025, but she has a win over Maria Sakkkari and close losses to Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa. She should know Navarro’s game, and should be able to match most aspects of it, especially with her forehand and her athleticism. But I’ll take the higher-ranked American, and bet against the sophomore slump, until proven otherwise. Winner: Navarro

Gael Monfils vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

When Monfils arrived on tour as a heedless, leaping, injury-prone teen in the mid-aughts, he may have been the last person I, or anyone else, would have expected to still be going strong 20 years later. But there he was last week in Auckland, still leaping, still heedless—and now, at 38, the oldest man since 1977 to win an ATP title.

On Tuesday the Frenchman will look across the net and see a taller, younger version of himself. Mpetshi Perricard, 21, also from France, plays with a similar heedlessness. But where the teen Monfils threw his body around the court, the 6’8” GMP throws caution to the wind by firing his second serves in the 130s. So far it has worked out for him. He’s already ranked 30th, has a pair of titles, and is touted, as Monfils once was, as a possible future Slam winner for France.

The two have never played, so it’s hard to know how they’ll match up. Even at 38, Monfils can do significantly more during rallies, but Mpetshi Perricard can win significantly more points with his serve alone. That goes double against Monfils, who has never had one of the game’s great returns. Winner: Monfils