Line Calls: Betting breakdown of Jordan Thompson vs. Frances Tiafoe in Houston

On Friday, April 5, we'll be treated to a meeting between world No. 33 Jordan Thompson and world No. 21 Frances Tiafoe in the quarterfinals of the U.S Men's Clay Court Championships in Houston, Texas. Current form gives a slight edge to Thompson, but Tiafoe remains the more talented of these two players. On top of that, Tiafoe won this event last year, and he clearly enjoys the conditions and atmosphere at this event. But we're going to run through the stats with you and let you decide how you should bet on this one.

Jordan Thompson vs. Frances Tiafoe betting odds

• Moneyline: Tiafoe -182, Thompson +148
• Total: 22.5 games

For more tennis betting odds, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why to bet on Jordan Thompson

• Thompson is in the midst of a career year: 16-9 with a winning percentage of 64.0%. Thompson has never had a season in which he has won at least 55.0% of his ATP-level matches.
• Thompson won his first-ever ATP-level title in Los Cabos in February, beating Alex Michelsen, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in his final three matches.
• Thompson’s hold percentage is at 82.9%, marking back-to-back years of 80.0% or more.
• Thompson’s 20.8% break percentage is the highest he has had since 2019. And he has won 37.2% of his return points, which is the highest mark he has had since 2017.
• Thompson is just 13-26 in ATP-level matches on clay. That includes a 2-4 record in the last 52 weeks.
• Thompson is just 6-16 in quarterfinal matches throughout his career.
• Thompson won the last meeting between these two, earning a 6-3, 6-2 victory in s’Hertogenbosch. Tthat was on grass, and these two have never met on clay.

Why to bet on Frances Tiafoe

• Tiafoe is the defending champion in Houston; he earned a 7-6 (1), 7-6 (6) win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry in last year's final.
• Tiafoe had some trouble in his win over James Duckworth in the Round of 16, as he needed two hours and 17 minutes to come away with a 6-2, 6-7 (4), 7-5 victory.
• Tiafoe is 8-8 this season. The American’s 50.0% winning percentage is the lowest he has had since 2020.
• Tiafoe is holding at only 78.4% this season. He held at 82.0% or higher in each of the past three years.
• Tiafoe is breaking serve at just 20.6% this season, down from last year’s 21.4%.
• Tiafoe is just 30-35 in ATP-level clay-court matches, but he’s 9-5 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. His break percentage is 23.4% on the clay. But it's important to keep in mind that a lot of that success came in this very tournament last year.
• Tiafoe is 13-23 in quarterfinal matches throughout his career.
• While Thompson won the last meeting between these two, Tiafoe does have a win over the Australian. Tiafoe earned a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory over Thompson in Acapulco in 2019.