Madrid Previews and Picks: Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray XXXVII—their first meeting since 2017—and the women's semifinals

WATCH: Andy Roddick on Andy Murray, who is finding his groove in Madrid

EDITOR'S NOTE: Andy Murray has withdrawn from his match against Novak Djokovic due to illness.

Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray

These two No. 1s, lifelong rivals and soon-to-be 35-year-olds each had a breakthrough on Tuesday. Djokovic played what he described as his best match of 2022 in beating Gael Monfils, while Murray won two matches in a row for the first time since January, when he beat Denis Shapovalov in three sets. The Serb and the Scot both seem to like the Madrid courts and conditions; Djokovic has three titles here, and Murray handed Rafael Nadal one of his most one-sided defeats on clay in the 2015 final. The question now will be: Which of their breakthroughs was more sustainable, and which of them is closer to his top form?

Djokovic has to be favored, of course, but Murray’s ability to bounce back and win a third set against the much younger Shapo was a good sign for his future. It’s just that the future for him might not be here quite yet. Winner: Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Cam Norrie

Alcaraz is 2-0 against Norrie, and he has won all five sets they’ve played. Both of those matches were on hard courts; now the Spaniard will be playing on a surface that he may like even more, in front of fans who will cheer his every move. That might seem like a recipe for a one-sided affair, and this could end up that way. But Norrie has a way of complicating things for his opponents. While he didn’t take a set from Alcaraz when they faced off in Indian Wells in March, he played well and was able to impose his tactics—varied spins, sudden forays to the net, wide slicing serves—on the Spaniard. It’s just that the Spaniard had the answers that day.

Norrie, who is ranked two spots behind Alcaraz at No. 11, reached two finals on clay last year, and he should feel comfortable on Madrid’s dirt. Alcaraz’s ascension has been meteoric, but if he gets a little tight, he can still give back a lead. Norrie will make him play to the last ball. Winner: Alcaraz

Ons Jabeur vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

Officially, Alexandrova and Jabeur have played just a set and a game against each other. It took place last year in Moscow, and Alexandrova was ahead 6-1, 1-0 when Jabeur retired. Unofficially, the head-to-head between these two is quite a bit more extensive, and surprising. Alexandrova and Jabeur have played six other times: five at Futures-level events, and once in the qualifying at Wimbledon. Would you have guessed that Alexandrova, who is 35 spots behind Jabeur in the rankings, has won five of those six matches, including all three on clay?

Clearly the Russian, who came out of qualies and has already won six matches in the past week, has a chance. But Jabeur has the better wins, over Simona Halep and Belinda Bencic, in Madrid, and I like her form right now. Winner: Jabeur

Jessica Pegula vs. Jil Teichmann

A meeting between the world No. 14 and 35 in the semifinals of a Masters 1000 is not what many, or any, would have predicted. But Pegula gives it her best competitive effort every week, and Teichmann has two clay-court titles to her name and has looked much improved this week. Together they’ve contributed to the big-name carnage in Madrid: Teichmann beat Petra Kvitova, Leylah Fernandez, and Elena Rybakina; Pegula knocked out Bianca Andreescu and home favorite Sara Sorribes Tormo.

Pegula and Teichmann have never met. While the American has a little more experience in matches of this magnitude, Teichmann hasn’t dropped a set yet. Winner: Teichmann