Marked Men
It would be both remiss and cold-hearted of me not to lead this post with a nod toward Novak Djokovic, who took it upon himself to spearhead the effort among ATP pros and fans to help Japan cope with its towering problems and challenges (see details on the charity events here). The combination of the earthquake, deadly tsunami, and hideous nuclear-power plant disasters created a traumatic event almost too big and terrifying to get our collective mind around. And the magnitude of the tragedy certainly begs the question, How is a soccer match featuring ATP tennis stars played at some high school going to make any difference at all?
Well, the soccer game is one thing; there's also the dinner and auction sponsored by GR8 Miami. But let's not kid ourselves, even the best-case scenario is apt to produce a portion of a drop of a drop of a drop in a bucket. But the important thing about such events isn't the amount money they raise. It's the solidarity they express and the message of aid and comfort they send to the traumatized. Japanese people, particularly Japanese tennis people (of which there are many) will know that these ATP pros and other contributors care; they share the concern of the Japanese, and even some of the pain. And that can provide solace and help the Japanese navigate these difficult times.
And now we'll move on. We had so much fun with our anti-handicapping (or, "handicrapping") at the start of Indian Wells that we'll do it again for Miami, and you're all invited to participate. If you missed it the first time around, handicrapping is the fine art of predicting not who is going to win any given tournament, but who is most likely to be upset early or, in the case of the best players, not make his or her seed. Today, we'll try to identify the at-risk men—tomorrow we'll look at the WTA players.
Miami, officially known as the Sony Ericsson Open these days, is in an interesting and somewhat odd position. Although the ATP and WTA try to cram in a number of warm-up events in, the fact remains that the Australian Open is more the start than climax of a distinct portion of the year. And Indian Wells and Miami seem to play the role Roland Garros does at the end of the European clay-court swing, and the U.S. Open acts out at the end of the summer hard-court segment.
But there's a difference. Indian Wells is where everyone reconvenes after being all over the map, and Miami is where the player all start to think about breaking up and moving on again. Miami is a kind of farewell party—good-bye North America and good-bye hard courts(for now), see you in Casablanca, Estoril, or maybe in Barcelona! And for those reasons, I think Miami is more likely to produce upsets as the thoughts of the players turn to the red clay courts of Europe. So here we go:
Novak Djokovic (No. 2): It's entirely possible that Nole is really, really bent on completing the transcontinental double, the Indian Wells and Miami Masters. It would certainly add up to a majestic feat. Should he win Miami, Djokovic will have been undefeated in the entire first segment of the year, with record of 24-0 (unless he gets a walkover enroute to the Miami title).
But I don't think that will happen, even though Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are on the other side of the draw. Talented Thomaz Bellucci, a guy who's going to have a breakout event at some point, may get a crack at Djokovic in the third round. Andy Murray, who needs to collect some Ws, could would meet Djokovic in the quarterfinals. And Nole has been a very busy guy, what with that exo the other day in Bogota, Colombia (with Nadal) and even his efforts on behalf of Japan. It just seems like Djokovic has done his heavy lifting for this portion of the year.
Robin Soderling (No. 4): The big Swede has been a model of consistency ever since he made his big move starting in the spring of 2009, but he spent five days in bed with a fever before Indian Wells, and played at that tournament on an ankle that's been bad since Sweden's Davis Cup tie triumph over Russia. It's hard to believe, but Soderling told the press that he didn't even have the ankle examined before he lost at Indian Wells—while revealing that he was so hobbled that it was unwise of him to even play the man who beat him in the desert in the third round, Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Well, as luck would have it, the men are penciled in to meet at the same stage. Other potential challengers in Soderling's quarter include seemingly rejuvenated Richard Gasquet (he always has a good time in Miami, just ask that mythic "Pamela"!), Mardy Fish, who needs a few Ws almost as badly as does Murray, Milos Raonic, and my darkhorse pick to win the event, David Ferrer—always a tough out.****
Jurgen Melzer (No. 10): I've got to believe Melzer is dying to get back on clay. He's made just one quarterfinal so this year, and that was after playing just one match in the 32-draw (with byes) event in Marseille. And he lost in those quarters to No. 129 Dmitry Tursunov, which made Melzer's performance in Marseilles maybe the least impressive quarferfinal "run" ever. Anyway, he'll probably have to contend with new German Davis Cup hero Philipp Petzschner in his first match, and ultimately have to beat Marin Cilic, as well as Andy Roddick or Gilles Simon in the fourth round.
Nicolas Almagro (No. 11): Nico was beaten by Albert Montanes (proving that contrary to some suspicions, Almagro and Montanes are not the same person) at Indian Wells, but Montanes was then taken out by ace machine Ivo Karlovic. The tallest man on the ATP Tour (at 6'10") was feeling it in the desert, and so were the tournament promoters in Miami, who awarded Karlovic a wild card after he went all the way to the quarterfinals last week and came within a few points of beating Nadal in a third-set tiebreaker.
Stanislas Wawrinka (No. 12): Although he ought to have little trouble with Benjamin Becker (or a qualifier) in the second round, I'm thinking the Manislas may not get past Michael Llodra or Xavier Malisse in the third round. Wawrinka likes to take big cuts, and both of those guys can take some time away from Wawrinka (albeit in different ways).
Ernests Gulbis (No. 28): Hahahahahaha!
That's all for today, folks.