Marked Women
by Pete Bodo
Kim Clijsters continues to make news. She declared yesterday that her shoulder feels pretty good and she's ready to do battle in Miami. Clijsters also said she'll probably retire shortly after the 2012 Olympic Games. But don't panic, Kim fans, we've heard this kind of thing before, and even if she does quit, there's always that "farewell tour" go-round. I think Elton John played something like 9 "farewell" concerts. And that was at just one arena. Over the course of a decade. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 9 times and. . . I'm the world biggest Elton John fan!
At that projected retirement time, Kim will still be on the sunny side of 30, which raises some interesting questions and possibilities. Is she involved in some kind of lingering competition with her first and greatest rival, Justine Henin? Henin is one up on Clijsters in the retirement column, having quit the game (for good, theoretically) twice now. Maybe Kim is itching to show that she has what it takes to be a WTA refusenik twice in a short period as well.
But did you ever think of this? There's no real reason, other than that bum elbow, why Henin can't make another comeback (a "re-return"?). You have to admit, medicine is pretty good these days and getting better, even for bad elbows. Remember, Henin is just 53 weeks older than Clijsters. Should Clijsters retire after the Olympics and Henin declare another comeback, there's no real reason Clijsters can't decide to re-return herself, leaving the Belgian refusniks tied with two successful retirements (or, if you prefer, two somewhat successful comebacks each).
It's getting to the point where we ought to contemplate installing a Kim Clijsters retirement daily update on the home page, eventually to contain links to ticket brokers in case you want to attend any of the farewell tour matches.
With another retirement looming a mere 18 or so months away, I imagine Clijsters wants to enjoy her final months on the job, so I'm not picking her to lose early in my WTA "handicrapping" exercise for Miami. Besides, some of you would begin howling that I'm picking on the WTA's reigning icon of motherhood—again. True, I had her losing early at Indian Wells (for which I think I ought to get at least half-credit), but even I don't feel right about picking someone to be the victim of a huge upset, or to fail to make her seeding, on consecutive weeks.
So let's name our WTA at-risk players for Miami:
Caroline Wozniacki (No. 1): I make this call with some reluctance, because I believe in Wozniacki's game and character. And she's acquitted herself very well on the hard courts thus far this year. Remember when her exhibition match losses and that first match/second round failure in Sydney had critics crowing how undeserving she was of the No. 1 ranking?
Since Sydney, Wozniacki has failed to get to the final only once in four events (even in the exception, which happened to be the Australian Open, she was within one swat of the racket from the final), and she won two of them (Dubai and Indian Wells). Wozniacki has the youth, consistency of game, and seemingly the appetite to dominate, but she's due for a bit of a mental break and may be forced to take it here. Could she be beaten by Bethanie Mattek-Sands today, or Beth's U.S. Fed Cup teammate Melanie Oudin in the next round? Probably not. But Daniela Hatuchova, who plays Oudin next, is unpredictable and sneaky dangerous. . .
Sam Stosur (No. 4): She was beaten by Dinara Safina (that's no typo) in her second match (third round) at Indian Wells, which wouldn't have been so bad if Safina did not then go out and get all of two games off Maria Sharapova in her next match. The wheels are falling off the Stosur bandwagon; it seemed to start at the beginning of the year in her home nation of Australia. She was No. 6 in the world at the time and much was expected, but she failed to get beyond the third round in any of the three events she played Down Under. In the big one, the Aussie Open, she succumbed meekly in straight sets to Petra Kvitova. And those Fed Cup losses to Francesca Schiavone and Pennetta shortly thereafter didn't exactly boost Stosur's stock as a national hero.
Stosur's rankings surge last year began on the green clay of Charleston and was capped by her runner-up finish at Roland Garros. I imagine she's eager to re-capture that feeling, and is already making plans to re-group for the clay-court season. Although Stosur plays a pretty good hard and grass-court game, the slowness of the clay gives her a little more time to dial in her shots, and that's when she's most dangerous. The heat in Miami is likely to speed up the courts beyond the point where Stosur is most comfortable.
Shahar Peer (No. 10): I don't suppose it's a very nice thought, but does anyone else think that Peer is about as vulnerable a No. 10 seed in a big event as you can find? I suppose it's that serve, and the ease with which you can back her up and force her the play from a defensive posture, with no real recourse to offense (she doesn't move well enough, or use enough of the court, to make that swift transition). She may get by Anabel Medina-Garrigues (although Em-gee won their only previous match), but Wickmayer lurks as dangerous a No. 23 seed as Peer is a beatable 10.
Flavia Pennetta (No. 13): She just turned 29 and put up some of her best results in recent years (earning Pennetta a career-high year-end ranking of No. 12 in 2009). But her level has been receding, albeit gradually. She will face Italian Fed Cup teammate Roberta Vinci or Iveta Benesova first, then, should she advance, likely the steadily improving Andrea Petkovic. Pennetta got only two games off Wozniacki and seven off Alisa Kleybanova in her last two matches, respectively. I don't think Pennetta survives to contest the fourth round.
Marion Bartoli (No. 15): Bartoli is coming off a great week in the desert, but she's also the kind of player who can over-complicate things and get a little carrried way. I wouldn't be surprised if she crashed and burned this week.
Aravane Rezai (No. 20): She's won two matches all year (most recently, over Zhang Shuai, a Chinese ranked No. 76, at Indian Wells). Peng Shuai, who upset Li Na and got all the way to the quarters last week, will avenge that loss by Zhang.