Men's Final Preview

Mornin', all. First a quick programming note: Because of the excellent preview below, I'm not going to post those thoughts on Kim Clijster's remarkable accomplishment. I'll get to that tomorrow in the post mortems. I think there's a pretty complex analysis to be done there, though and I promise to provide it.

Meanwhile, yesterday we were lucky enough to have two WTA mavens debate and predict the outcome of the women's US Open final. So it's only right to do something comparable with the men. I'm happy to report that two of our best known writers and comment posters, Asad Raza and Andrew Friedman, agreed too do a point counter-point on the men's final.

Incidentally, because Asad did not have a credential to the tournament Andrew decided to forgo attending the final in order to fire up the grill, cook a couple of burgers, and watch the final on television with Asad. Can you say, "buddy!"

Anyway, here's what they wrote, and you can use this post for your men's final crisis center:

-- Pete

Let's begin with Asad:

So this might be a weird way to preview a tennis final, but I had an interesting encounter with Roger Federer two nights ago.  I was minding my own business at the concert equivalent of an exhibition match.  The thing was a benefit for Pakistani refugees displaced from the Swat Valley, where the Taliban has taken over.  There were Pakistani bands, speeches by philanthropists, videotaped messages from Deepak Chopra and Sting, the whole nine.  It took place at the U.N., in the general assembly, Le Corbusier's cavernous and beautiful hall.  My aunt had gotten me a ticket, I'd showed up late and found a seat in an empty balcony section.  A few minutes later Roger and his entourage (Mirka, his parents, agent, friends, and Gwen Stefani) showed up and took a nearby couple of rows.

Man, Asad.  Pete asks us for a no-holds-barred, hair-pulling, groin-kicking, brass-knuckled throwdown and you weigh in with this high-minded paean to world peace. If I were able to, I’d shove this keyboard down your…. Oh, never mind.

But you know something?  You’re right to feel that way about Federer, and come to think of it, I kind of feel the same way about del Potro.  I saw him play in person for the first time at last year’s US Open.  He was at the tail end of that crazy summer when he had won four titles in a row, and he was on Louis Armstrong Stadium brutalizing young Kei Nishikori. 

To me, del Potro had a menacing demeanor on the court. He was belting the ball into the corners with utter abandon, a display that left me slack-jawed.  But it was his presence on the changeover that made me afraid for his opponents: That tall, bony, long-limbed build of his, paired with his prison-yard strut, made him seem like a bad character to me. (I also had the memory of his run-in with Andy Murray fresh in my mind – the one where he went after “your mother.”  Is there anything more archetyically bullying than that?)

Of course, we all now know that’s not the case.  It’s just a terribly convincing game face.  Off the court, del Potro is soft-spoken and humble, even sweet.  These two traits came together when his 2008 hot streak ended at the hands of Murray at the Open.  He had become so hooked on winning that when he finally lost, in five sets, he broke down crying at his press conference and had to be consoled by his compatriot reporters.

But it’s been a year since then.  del Potro is fitter and stronger and he’s been steadily working toward the goal of winning what he described yesterday as his favorite tournament.  He’s also been working toward the goal of toppling Federer, which he nearly accomplished at the French Open this year, taking Fed to five sets.  I think he ran out of gas rather than guts that day, and this time I think he has plenty of both left in the tank.  Amazingly, he looked to be barely exerting himself in his comprehensive beat-down of Nadal yesterday.  Commentators like to talk about great players having an extra gear available when the going gets tough; he was still in first when it was time to shake hands on Sunday. 

So, then, what happens today?  It wasn’t defense alone that allowed Nadal to better Federer in five slam finals, but that was the biggest factor.  In del Potro, I believe that Federer might meet his offensive better this afternoon.  To me, the questions are whether del Potro will join the list of first-time slam finalists who have crumpled against Fed, despite being in a winning position, or standing toe-to-toe (see Baghdatis, Marcos; Djokovic, Novak).  If del Potro can take it up a notch from what we saw yesterday, and we’ve all witnessed his ability to do that, he should be able to topple The Mighty Fed.

But your point is well taken.  Our host Pete is a big Western fan, and Federer reminds of a line from a long-forgotten yarn from the 1980s called Barbarosa, starring Willie Nelson in the title role of a red-bearded bandit.  “Always stand still until you're done shooting,” he admonishes a young gunslinger. “Nothin' scares a man more than for you to be standin' still when you should be runnin' like a spotted-assed ape.”

Federer, at his best, always stands still until he’s done shooting, and he usually has one more shot (and a prettier one at that) than the other guy.  I say that delpo, while he surely won’t hit anything resembling that tweener Fed managed yesterday, will strike the last blow this afternoon.  He’ll end this US Open crying again, but they won’t be tears of pain.