Mettle Fatigue?

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by Pete Bodo***

The ATP 500s are the poor relatives in the family of tennis tournaments. Can you name half-a-dozen ATP 500 events? Probably not. Do you know how many there are on the calendar? How do the ranking points you earn for winning a 500 event compare with the points distribution for a Masters Series 1000 tournament?

Well, I won't bother to tick off the names of six 500 events, but will say I find it odd that there are only 11 of them on the calendar, and that winning one earns you just 100 points fewer than you get for being a finalist in one of the elite Masters events. Add up the prestigious Grand Slam events, the nine Masters 1000s, the 11 500s and throw in the year-end ATP championships and you still have far fewer events than the whopping 42 ATP 250s that flesh out the calendar.

The 250s are the lifeblood of the tour, but they're really for players far down on the food chain. David Ferrer played a grand total of three 250s this year. Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal played just two. Novak Djokovic took part in just one (a tournament he happened to invent, in his home town of Belgrade, Serbia) and Roger Federer played only the Doha 250. The 250s pay sanctioned appearance fees, but so do the 500s, which is why they are a much more powerful magnet for top players.

Well, the 250s are finished for the year, and the 500s will leave the stage tomorrow with the finals in Basel and Valencia. The first 500 of the year was won by Robin Soderling (Rotterdam) and the last one may go to Kei Nishikori (although it's unlikely, because he plays Roger Federer in the Basel final), or to Marcel Granollers or Juan Monaco, who will contest the Valencia final. Before we leave the theme, let's take a quick look at how the 500s played out this year.

Curiously, nobody won more than one 500 event, while Nadal, Djokovic and Murray all won more than one Masters 1000 (with only eight of the nine already played). The winners of the 500s were, starting in February in Rotterdam, Robin Soderling, Andy Roddick, Djokovic, Ferrer, Nadal, Gilles Simon, Radek Stepanek, Tomas Berdych and Murray (you can find the events and dates here). Murray, Djokovic and Nadal are the only three men who pulled off a double, winning at least one 1000 and one 500.

None of those 500 winners are in either final tomorrow, so we'll have a different winner for each 500 tournament of the year, which is a little surprising. And the list is a solid one, Stepanek and perhaps Simon the only names that might cause you to raise an eyebrow.

Well, one name that is sure to appear on the list of 500 winners tomorrow will certainly be unexpected. Juan Monaco and Marcel Granollers have won a combined five singles titles over the years (three by Monaco), all of them ATP 250s—and all of them on outdoor clay, not the indoor hard on which they'll meet on Sunday. Each of them got to the final bracket the hard way—Granollers had to go through former U.S. Open champ Juan Martin del Potro, while Monaco halted David Ferrer's 14-match Valencia winning streak. The finalists are bound to be sky high and ready to pull out all the stops, because Valencia would be a career win for either of them.

But most of the hype today emanated from Basel, and it's likely that the boldest headlines will be written there on Sunday—if Nishikori beats Federer. But if Federer wins, it will be the first title for him since the very first event of his year, the 250 in Doha. More important, it probably would give the Swiss, now No. 3, a much-needed shot of pride and a lift that could make him a dangerous man at the Paris Masters and at the WTF in London.

Should Federer win, you can see where he might forget the trophy back in the hotel room when he checks out. Or you could, it this weren't the Basel event. Federer has always taken pride in winning what is in essence his hometown title; he's done it four times already and shows no sign of getting sick of the feeling. It's hard to imagine him losing to Nishikori, who pulled off a remarkable upset of Djokovic in the semifinals—although it appears that Djokovic was playing with a bum shoulder for much of the match.

After swarming all over Nishikori to lead, 5-1, Djokovic was broken and promptly called the first of his two injury time-outs; he took another one to receive treatment during the second set, and ended up losing the third without winning a game. The upset by Nishikori may have ruined things for fans salivating over a Djokovic vs. Federer final in a year when Federer stopped Djokovic's winning streak at 42 matches, and Djokovic stopped Federer's streak of eight straight years with at least one Grand Slam title (and Djokovic did it while staring down two match points in the U.S. Open semifinals). But I have a feeling that Federer will get a better night's sleep knowing his opponent tomorrow will be Nishikori.

The loss to Nishikori was Djokovic's fourth of the year, and the third one in which his fitness emerged as the dominant issue. Federer inflicted the first loss Djokovic suffered this year, without qualification, in the semis of the French Open. Djokovic did not lose again until he retired while trailing Murray in the final of Cincinnati. And then a week after he won the U.S. Open, Djokovic had to quit during a Davis Cup clash with del Potro.

After he lost to Nishikori, Djokovic avowed that the pain in his shoulder (it was the same one that caused him to concede the Cincy final to Murray) was "pretty bad." It was unclear whether or not he would be able to play in the final Masters event next week in Paris. The iron man of the first six months is showing signs of metal fatigue—or is it mettle fatigue. Either would be understandable.

The repercussions of Djokovic's injury could be significant in light of the tight race for the final three berths (of eight) for the ATP World Tour Finals. The contenders for the final spot are Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish, Juan Martin del Potro, Nicolas Almagro, Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon and Janko Tipsarevic. Among them, Berdych, Tsonga and Fish are currently sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively. In order for the others to have a chance, they will have to make the final in Paris (some would have to win it) and have a few other things work out in order to slip in. Having Djokovic out of the way in Bercy would certainly improve the chances of all those outsiders.

Right now, though, I'll bet Djokovic would be sorely tempted to give one of those contenders his spot in the WTF and call it a year. Who could blame him?