Monte Carlo Betting Preview: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur
Musetti beat de Minaur when the two met on grass last summer, so it's interesting the Italian is an underdog on his favorite surface.
Alex de Minaur double-bageled Grigor Dimitrov in the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters quarterfinals, winning 6-0, 6-0 in a match that took only 44 minutes. It was a complete demolition, and one of the most dominant performances we’ve seen all year. I hit a nice future on that one, as I had de Minaur to win Quarter 2 at +650. That ticket was never in doubt, and it was nice to cash it without even breaking a sweat.
However, while I clearly like de Minaur’s clay-court ability, I can’t figure out why the Australian is favored over Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals.
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Musetti won the most recent match he played against de Minaur, defeating him on on grass last summer. He won that match 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 at a time when the Australian was absolutely scorching hot. And that wasn’t just a one-off win either—it showed that Musetti could hang with de Minaur in faster conditions that generally favor the Aussie.
De Minaur has consistently been a strong grass-court player throughout his career. Well, clay is Musetti’s favorite surface. That’s where he thrives.
The Italian currently ranks 11th on the ATP Tour in clay-court Elo rating, and his number (1901.6) is significantly higher than de Minaur’s (1845.5). And if you look at recent form, Musetti’s 11-6 record on clay over the last 52 weeks is a bit better than de Minaur’s 7-4 record. The Italian also owns a much higher hold percentage on the dirt—80.9% compared to de Minaur’s 76.1% over the last 365 days.
Of course, it’s worth noting that de Minaur now has the highest clay-court break percentage (37.4%) of anybody on tour over the last 52 weeks. That number is obviously inflated by Friday’s 6-0, 6-0 win, but it still shows how dangerous he’s been on return this week.
That said, I’ll take Musetti returning against the de Minaur serve over the other way around all day. I also think Musetti is a little more dangerous from the baseline. He has more life on his forehand, and his backhand is a weapon when he has time to set up and rip it.
The only thing I’m a little worried about is fatigue. Musetti has spent more time on court than de Minaur this week, and the Aussie is going to have a huge advantage in the rest department. But this is a best-of-three tournament, not a five-set grind, and I’m hoping that’ll give Musetti enough time to recover. If he’s even reasonably fresh, I think this is tremendous value on a guy that’s simply the better clay-court player.
Pick: Musetti ML (+125)