New site, fresh cast, big money: Previewing the WTA Finals in Shenzhen

There was no dominant champion on the WTA in 2019, but it didn’t feel as if there were any fluke winners or one-Slam wonders, either. Among the eight players to qualify for the tour’s year-end championship—Ashleigh Barty, Karolina Pliskova, Naomi Osaka, Simona Halep, Bianca Andreescu, Petra Kvitova, Belinda Bencic, Elina Svitolina—five have won major titles, and the three who haven’t, Pliskova, Bencic and Svitolina, seem destined to do it at some point. Virtually all of this year’s finalists also seem destined to be at the top of the sport for many years to come.

Also new in 2019 will be the tournament site. After a five-year run in Singapore, the Finals will move to Shenzhen, China, a city of nearly 13 million people that has experienced explosive growth over the last four decades. Along with the change in venue has come an eye-popping explosion in prize-money. In 2018, the purse for this event was $7 million; in 2019, it’s $14 million, with $3.45 million of that going to the champion. Yes, the season is long, but a big pot of gold awaits the last woman standing.

Who might that be? Since Serena Williams last made the trip, in 2014, this tournament has given us four surprise champions: Agnieszka Radwanska, Dominika Cibulkova, Caroline Wozniacki and Svitolina. In other words, the big prize is there for the taking, for anyone who can get hot enough to take it. Here’s a look at the group breakdowns, and who might emerge from each.

Ashleigh Barty
Record vs. Group: 4-6

Barty comes to Shenzhen with an 1,100 point lead in the race for the year-end No. 1 ranking, and she reached the final of her last event, in Beijing. The young Australian can complete her breakout season with one last solid performance. That said, this is a tough group for her. She’s 2-4 against Kvitova, she lost her last meeting with Osaka in the Beijing final, and she’s never faced Bencic. Is Barty ready to be a long-term, full-time No. 1? This tournament will give us a clue.

Naomi Osaka
Record vs. Group: 4-6

First the good news: Osaka has been the WTA’s best player since the US Open, winning titles in Japan and Beijing. She has played with freedom, determination and a hard core of confidence, all of which were lacking when she felt the weight of being No. 1 earlier in the season. Now the bad news: She’s 1-4 against Belinda Bencic, who seems to have her number.

Petra Kvitova
Record vs. Group: 8-3

While Barty, Osaka and Bencic are relative newbies at the year-end championships, Kvitova is a veteran; she won this event in 2011, and lost in the final in 2015. She also has a winning overall record against her group, though she has taken her lumps from Osaka and Barty this season. She’s the least likely to suffer from a case of late-season, big-stage nerves.

Belinda Bencic
Record vs. Group: 5-5

Like Osaka, Bencic comes to Shenzhen on a roll. Needing a good result to qualify last week in Moscow, she went ahead and won the tournament. Now the level of competition will rise; from Bencic’s point of view, this group provides opportunities and obstacles: she’s 4-1 vs. Osaka, and 1-4 against Kvitova. Will her fate be decided by her match against Barty? They’ve never faced each other.

Semifinalists: Osaka, Kvitova

Karolina Pliskova
Record vs. Group: 9-11

Pliskova is due for a big result. Beyond due, really; she has seemed to be on the verge of a Slam breakthrough for a good three seasons now. While one didn’t come in 2019, she still had a successful season by every other measure. Maybe Shenzhen is the next half-step she needs to take.

Bianca Andreescu
Record vs. Group: 2-0

The 19-year-old Andreescu has climbed the WTA ranks so quickly, she has hardly had a chance to face anyone in her group. She’s 1-0 against Pliskova, 1-0 against Svitolina, and has never played her idol, Halep. Andreescu had no trouble with Top 10 opponents in Indian Wells and at the US Open. Is there any reason to think she’ll start struggling against them now?

Simona Halep
Record vs. Group: 10-8

Halep’s 2019 revolves around Wimbledon, where she pulled off a career-best performance to win the title. Since then, she’s been roughly .500. Can she catch lightning in a bottle for one more week, or is it best just to wait for her to start fresh in 2020 and be happy with what she did? One of the game’s steadiest performers, Halep has been to this tournament many times before, but has reached the final just once, in 2014.

Elina Svitolina
Record vs. Group: 7-9

If there’s one player who might not be happy to leave Singapore, it’s Svitolina. Last year she went 5-0 to win this title, the biggest of her career. She hasn’t won anything bigger since, though she did reach her first two Grand Slam semifinals, at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Semifinalists: Svitolina, Pliskova