Olympic Tennis Preview: Five takeaways from the singles, doubles and mixed draws

From the perspective of the general sports fan, there’s still a (misguided) sense that tennis doesn’t belong in the Olympics. In their minds, it did just fine without the Games from 1924 to 1988, and tennis players already have four Holy Grail two-week events of their own, called the Grand Slams.

But from a hardcore tennis-fan perspective, or at least from this hardcore tennis fan’s perspective, the Olympics provide us with a unique, and in many ways ideal, version of a tournament. The top players are not only fired up to win medals in the singles, many of them come out for doubles and mixed, too. And you only have to see their reactions when they earn medals to know that it means every bit as much to them as it does to any athlete in a more traditional Olympic sport.

For Paris 2024, those stars will return to one of their Grand Slam stomping grounds, Roland Garros. That also happened in 2012, when the All England Club hosted the Summer Games. Somehow, though, the Olympics, with its different color schemes, made the event feel distinct from Wimbledon. I expect the same to be true at RG over the next week.

With players ready to float down the Seine for the Opening Ceremonies—Coco Gauff will be among the flag bearers—here are five takeaways from the draws. (Click here to view them.) This time we have five to consider, rather than just two.

1. Two GOATS may meet in the second round

Discounting round-robin matches at the ATP Finals, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have never played each other before the quarterfinals of a tournament. If they win their first-round matches—Djokovic faces Matthew Ebden, Nadal plays Marton Fuscsovics—they’ll square off for the 60th time.

It would be an intriguing encounter. Djokovic is the top seed and wants an Olympic medal badly, but he’s still just six weeks out from knee surgery and heading back to clay for the first time since his Wimbledon final loss. Nadal, meanwhile, is in comeback mode, but he’s also still the King of Chatrier; he’s 8-2 against Djokovic on that court.

Lovers of historical symmetry should pull for Nadal. A win by the Spaniard would leave the head-to-head between these two legends at 30-30. It would be fitting if it ended that way.

2. Is the men’s singles Carlos Alcaraz’s tournament to lose?

Alcaraz is the favorite. He’s won the last two Grand Slams, including one on these terre battue courts. The player who won the other major of 2024, Jannik Sinner, has withdrawn. And three other medal contenders—Djokovic, Nadal and Tokyo gold medalist Alexander Zverev—are in the other half.

My only question about Alcaraz is whether he has put his erratic ways from the second half of 2023 behind him for good. He held steady through 14 straight Slams matches at Wimbledon and Roland Garros. Does that mean we should trust him to do the same at the Olympics, or is he due for an off day? The best-of-three-set format will mean that he can’t afford any extended slip-ups. There are some players in his half who could test him: Cam Norrie in the second round; Tommy Paul in the quarters; Daniil Medvedev or Casper Ruud in the semis.

Then there’s the defending Olympic gold medalist, Zverev. He just made the Roland Garros final, and he has a manageable path to the semis at this event. If Alcaraz stumbles, and Djokovic and Nadal aren’t up to their top levels, Zverev may have a path to a second gold.

3. Will Iga Swiatek be as dominant as always at Roland Garros?

At first glance, there’s no reason to think otherwise. These are the same courts, with the same surface, that she has dominated for three years running. If anything, her run through the field last month was her most impressive yet.

But as she found out in Tokyo in 2021, the Olympics brings its own pressures. That year she lost in the second round to Paula Badosa—albeit on hard courts—and ended the match in tears. Swiatek wants nothing less than gold for Poland this time around; we’ll see if that inspires her or handcuffs her.

One thing Iga probably doesn’t love is her draw. Her path to the final is littered with opponents who have troubled her in the past. In the third round, she could play Linda Noskova, who beat her in Melbourne. In the quarters, she could play Jelena Ostapenko, who is undefeated against her. In the semis, she might see Naomi Osaka, who almost knocked her out of Roland Garros in May.

By contrast, the number two seed, Gauff, must be pleased with her road ahead. She won’t see Swiatek until the final, and two other top players, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, have withdrawn. She wouldn’t meet the two most in-form players in her half, Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini, until the semifinals.

First-round match to watch: Osaka vs. Angelique Kerber, who is playing her final tournament

4. Doubles matters at the Olympics like no other event—what should we watch for?

Every four years, those of us who lament the decline in status of doubles get our wish: With medals up for grabs, and no best-of-five singles on the men’s side, more top players come out for dubs. In Paris, that includes Alcaraz and Nadal (i.e., the newly christened Nadalcaraz), Zverev, Medvedev, Gauff, Tsitsipas, Sakkari, Zheng, Fritz, Paul, Auger-Aliassime and other singles stars. All of the sport’s disciplines are rightly on display at the Games.

How well can the singles players do? On the men’s side, if you’re a future Hall of Famer, you have a chance. Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka won gold in 2008, and Rafael Nadal did the same with Marc Lopez in 2016.

Some highlights of the 2024 doubles draws:

—Alcaraz and Nadal start against the sixth-seeded team of Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni, of Argentina. Not an easy opener.

—Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul of the U.S. will take on Felix Auger Aliassime and Milos Raonic of Canada in the first round

—Now that he has pulled out of singles, Andy Murray will end his career in the doubles with Dan Evans

—Gauff and Jessica Pegula are the top seeds in women’s doubles, but the favorites have to be the No. 2 seeds and defending gold medalists, Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova. 

—Zverev and Laura Siegemund are the top mixed seeds, but also look out for Gauff/Fritz, Medvedev/Mirra Andreeva, Tsitsipas/Sakkari, and the Zhang/Zheng pairing from China.

5. Who is going to win gold?

• Women’s Singles: Iga Swiatek
• Men’s Singles: Alexander Zverev
• Women’s Doubles: Krejcikova/Siniakova
• Men’s Doubles: Alcaraz/Nadal
• Mixed: Gauff/Fritz