Ova the Hump
It seems only fitting that the grand finale of the Australian Open women's singles event will consist of a clash between the two compelling story lines that were in place way back on the first day of play.
I'm not talking about Kim Clijsters' wish to run a victory lap before she retires, nor about Li Na's return to the place where her breakthrough success of 2011 began. I'm not talking about Caroline Wozniacki's quest for that long-deferred Grand Slam title. And I'm not referring to Petra Kvitova's drive to strip Wozniacki of that No. 1 ranking. That was a good theme all right, but it's insufficiently aged.
One of the great narratives can be called the education of aspiring Grand Slam champ Victoria Azarenka; the other is the resurrection of Maria Sharapova.
Tomorrow, one of those stories will end in triumph, the other in heartbreak. That they both can't end well is the essence and glory of sports, although it's not always so obvious.
Azarenka is just 22, yet she's been a pro since she entered an ITF Challenger event in Israel at 14. Last year, she climbed all the way to No. 3, and rarely lost a big match to an equal or inferior player. The Belarusian Bombardier's opponent in the final is just over two years older, but she achieved with relative ease the very stuff of which Azarenka dreams are made of when she, Sharapova, won Wimbledon at the ridiculous age of 17.
Azarenka has been a hard-luck story, spiced-up and driven by her capacity for keeping the faith. Sharapova has been a fairy tale that turned dark when a serious shoulder injury nearly killed her career, transforming Sharapova from the insanely lucky blond who seemed to have it all (and still wanted more) into a broke-down example of what can happen if you get too much, too fast.
Only one thing will distract most people from understanding and savoring the clash of these two tales, and that will be the way both woman insist on shrieking and screaming every blessed time they strike the ball. To call that noise "grunting" is an insult not only to various barnyard creatures, but to the English language. However, we can hope that the outcry over the sound track will finally prod the WTA into taking action to control this problem.
When I look at this match-up, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that by the end of the day Saturday, Azarenka will not be the game's newest Grand Slam champion, but will have come one step closer to becoming its newest Elena Dementieva. Perhaps not coincidentally, Azarenka plays an athletic, fierce game comparable to one that brought Dementieva everything but a major title. The saving grace for Azarenka in this comparison is that she isn't saddled with that woeful serve that plagued Dementieva through most of her career, so there's reason to hope.
On the other hand. . .
Azarenka was broken nine times in her last two matches (Sharapova surrendered just four breaks in her last two), and Sharapova is a bold, borderline reckless returner. Given that this is Azarenka's first Grand Slam final, it may be too much to expect her to show the poise it will require to stand up to Sharapova's blistering return. She can always tell herself, If Kvitova can do it at Wimbledon, I can do it here. . . But what she cannot do is borrow Kvitova's serve and a grass court.
But that's just Part A of her problem. Part B is that Sharapova seems to have overcome her prolonged case of the serving yips, and that suggests that she also will be hard to break. Those big serves Sharapova has been landing enable her to take control and dictate the nature of the rallies. If she is capable that way in the final, Sharapova will make Azarenka's athleticism and rallying ability a moot point. This match-up just doesn't look very good for Azarenka because of the serve/return match-up.
Of course, Sharapova could blister the court with errant serves and drill holes in the court-side signage with shanked returns. Nobody stinks out a joint as badly as Sharapova on an off day. But she hasn't had any of those in Melbourne, so you'd have to be perverse to suddenly call for a letdown in the final. Besides, Sharapova is a competitor for the ages, and she hasn't minded telling anyone who'll listen that she really wants this one. "It means so much to be back in a Grand Slam final, a stage I have been to before few years ago here. It's nice to get that far again after losing quite early in the last couple of years. . . So, yeah, it means a lot to me."
That's about as close to passionate as this frosty withholder comes in her public pronouncements.
You have to feel for Azarenka. She's become a master of due diligence without her labor bearing the ultimate fruit. Last year, she lost to the finalist at two majors (Li Na in Australia, Serena Williams at the U.S. Open) and the champion at the other two (Li at Roland Garros, Kvitova at Wimbledon). She was Rafa to their collective Nole all year. Her streak continues here because of the way the once roiled skies have suddenly cleared for Sharapova.
Azarenka won two of their last three meetings, but Sharapova was ranked outside the Top 10 and still on the comeback trail at the time. She's Ova that hump now and looks like she'll be very hard to beat.