PacLife CC/Scout Report - Day 13

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By TennisWorld Contributing Editor Andrew Burton

Morning, all.

Everyday, you crawl into the night
A fallen angel, with your wings set alight
When you hit the ground
Everything turns to blue
I can't get through the smoke
That's surrounding you

Cause when you’re falling
I can’t tell which way is down
And when you’re screaming
Somehow I don't hear a sound
And when you're seeing things
Then your feet don’t touch the ground
Cause when you're falling
I can't tell which way is down

"When You're Falling," Afro-Celt Sound System with Peter Gabriel

In yesterday's CC/Scout Report, I wrote about consistency and confidence, two attributes with essentially positive connotations.  Today, we'll flip over to the dark side.

Everywhere you looked at Indian Wells, yesterday, you saw signs of the Apocalypse - if you were so disposed.  To Barry Flatman of The Times, "[Federer] took his leave from the Pacific Life Open in Indian Wells, a dispirited figure left not only humiliated by the world’s 98th-ranked player but increasingly concerned at the state of his own health. ...[O]n the evidence of [Federer's] frankly sorry 6-3 6-2 demise against Fish, himself for so long the victim of the most atrocious ill-fortune with health and injuries, it seems at the moment that a lack of confidence seems to be most chronic ailment afflicting him." (Look over there - Pestilence!)

Bill Dwyre of the LA Times wrote, "On a beautiful Saturday afternoon, in front of 16,870, in the men's semifinals of one of the most important tournaments in the world, a guy ranked 98th, who doesn't even know how to spell his name right, beat Roger Federer.

No, make that destroyed Roger Federer.

Yes, 6-3, 6-2. Crushed, whipped, dismantled. Pick your verb." (Hmmm - do I spy... Conquest?)

Well, I could go on, invoking War and Famine (does Roger look, hmm, thinner) - but you get the drift.  If Roger Federer was beaten yesterday by the 98th ranked player in the world, after - gasp - not winning a tournament in the first three months of 2008, something was Very, Very Wrong In The World Of Roger Federer.

That said, if you listened to the two people with the best view of the event - Mardy Fish and Roger Federer - you heard a bit of a different story.

Fish was asked at his press conference whether this was the greatest upset in tennis history.  With pitch-perfect delivery, he shot back "I don't think I'm that bad."  He isn't, and he hasn't been.  Ranked as high as 17 in the past, Fish got to the SF taking three big scalps - Davydenko (also 3 and 2, let it be noted), Hewitt and Nalbandian.  And he had a game plan for his opponent, who he hadn't defeated in 5 previous matches:

"You know, this wasn't obviously Roger's best day, but hopefully I had a little something to do with that. You know, I put the pressure extremely, from the word go, you know, on him, and you know, I wanted to start out -- sometimes in big situations or against guys who return real well - and I consider him the best returner in the world - that I'll tend to receive -- I want to toss, tend to receive, and just to kind of get my feet under me.

I said, What the hell. Let's go for it and let's start it off and try and jump start him as best I can. Obviously it was a dream start to go up 3-Love and have a couple break points there at 3-0. He had a break point against my second serve game when I was 2-0. That was a huge game to get through that."

"Hopefully I had a little something to do with that."  That was something neither man forgot yesterday.  At his own press conference, Federer was disappointed, but by no means disconsolate:

"I've had a great record against him, you know, always sort of had sort of controlled matches against him, but today was different. He came out playing very, very well.  Yeah, he played great today. I mean, I can only congratulate him. Fantastic." 

Later on, a journalist asked "How do you explain a man ranked 98, hasn't done anything for a long time, to come out and beat three top 10 players like that?"  Once again, Federer pointed out that Fish wasn't, um, chopped liver:

"You've been around the game. You know it's possible. He's been -- it's not like he's been 98 for the first in his life, he just made a career breakthrough breaking into the top 100. The guy has been top 20 before, and he's had big matches before.

Should have won Cincinnati a few years back beating Andy before he became No. 1. We know how good Mardy can be. Let's not talk about 98 in the world. We know he's way better than that."

I think there's more than just etiquette going on here.  A year ago, on this very website, the hue-and-cry after Federer's back-to-back defeats against Canas - the sky is falling, what was Federer thinking, how could Roger play so badly - was brought up short, at least for me, by a poster's observation that we should credit Canas for playing well.

So call that Theory 1 - Fish won, Federer didn't lose.  There are other theories.  Let's call Theory 2 "Tank City" (we can possibly also name it Voks' Conjecture, thanks to one of our many posters from Serbia) - that Federer, unmanned by the thought of another straight sets loss to the rising power in the ATP, Novak Djokovic, chose to take instead a straight sets loss to Mardy Fish.

I never rule anything entirely out, but I'm going (personally) to give this one a 0.00001% probability.

Then there's "Mirka Made Him Do It," Theory 3 - was she pregnant, distracted, upset, departed, absent without leave - and, by gum, the poor lad couldn't make things happen without his missus looking on?  Possible, I suppose.  Maybe ten times as likely as Theory 2, so I'll assign it a  0.0001% probability.

Maybe we should move on from the events of yesterday, and turn to the medium term future.  My central hypothesis is that Federer is no less a player, when fit, at the start of 2008 than he was in 2007.  I think he faces at least two opponents, now, who already are or have the potential to be members of the historic elite - multi GS winners.  The rest of the tour can play a bit too.  But the "Fed's gone" mutterings aren't being heard in the locker room.  One more quote from Mardy Fish yesterday:

"Q. Obviously Roger's run these past four years has just been incredible, really nothing like it. But now there have been some losses, and shock of shocks. Is there a different sense you think with players who are come on court against him?

MARDY FISH: No. I mean, to answer your question, brutally honest, no. I mean, no one thought -- no one in the locker room -- I mean, yeah, we've heard -- you know, we just kind of laugh at it. We just kind of think it's kind of a joke. You know, oh, my gosh, Roger hasn't won a tournament yet this year. You know, he's only played two tournaments. You know, semifinals while he had mono is pretty good.

You know, that match I actually talked to him in the locker room about his match, about Australia, and he said he had a bunch of chances and it could have gone either way. Novak played really well. He just had a bit of bad luck in the beginning of the year. He came up against a really tough draw in the first round of Dubai, and, you know, played a guy that's 11 in the world in the first round.

You know, if you're not on top of your game -- I mean, everybody's real good, and if you're not on top of your game, you know, somewhere down the road guys are going to get you."

And one last thought, from the archetypal fallen angel - the Devil himself.  In Mikhail Bulgakov's wonderful satire on Stalin's Moscow, "The Master and Margarita," Satan and his retinue create all kinds of havoc in the city.  But the Lord of Shadows knows a thing or two about why shadows exist:

"You spoke your words as though you denied the very existence of the shadows or of evil. Think, now: where would your good be if there were no evil and what would the world look like without shadow?... Shadows are also cast by trees and living things. Do you want to strip the whole globe by removing every tree and every creature to satisfy your fantasy of a bare world?"

In a few minutes, Kuznetsova and Ivanovic do battle for the WTA title, then no earlier than 2pm Pacific (5pm Eastern) Djokovic and Fish come out to play.  No more forecasts from me - you've all seen them play through the week, so have at it.

A bit later I'll report on a media breakfast with Charlie Pasarell and Ray Moore, the tournament owners.  The two biggest issues for Tribe members I could see on this year's tournament were TV coverage by Fox Sports Network, and the continuing absence of the Williams sisters, so I asked questions on each topic.  I'll have their replies for you when I get the transcript.

I also had another well fought set with Andrew Friedman this morning.  It's been a great pleasure to have his company for much of the tournament, as well as Kamakshi, Steve and Pete.  Little more to do now than get this post up, and as always, wish everyone great enjoyment of today's tennis.