Pick of the Day: Brandon Nakashima vs. Holger Rune, Shanghai
You may think this match should be one-way traffic in Rune's favor, but the 20-year-old has really been struggling of late.
In what should be a very exciting second-round match at the Shanghai Masters, Brandon Nakashima takes on world No. 5 Holger Rune. With Nakashima being 123rd in the rankings, you’d think this should be something of a straightforward win for Rune. But the Danish phenom has lost eight of his last nine matches. He is in a bad way right now, which is why I like backing Nakashima to cover the +2.5 game spread here.
Nakashima hasn’t exactly been spectacular himself lately, as he snapped a four-match losing streak when he earned a straight-set win over Bernabe Zapata Miralles. But I do think he has the type of game that can give Rune trouble. Nakashima is very reliable with the ball on his racquet, as he has had a hold percentage just short of 85.0% in each of his four tour-level seasons. I think his ability to play clean service games will serve him well in this match, as Rune’s serve has been failing him lately—not just when it comes to results, but there has even been talk of his service motion hurting his back.
If Rune can’t give himself a lot of free points on his serve, I just don’t see how this would be an easy win for him. One of Nakashima’s biggest flaws this year has been his 13.3% break percentage, but I think Rune is going to gift him a few opportunities in this match. I also think Nakashima’s baseline game is going to get to Rune. Nakashima has a lot of power from the baseline, and he’s also rather athletic. He can track down a lot of balls back there.
Overall, I can see Nakashima just handling his business while Rune battles himself a little on the other side of the net. And while I’m only taking the game spread in this one, I do think the American has a decent shot at winning this one outright.
Bet: Nakashima +2.5 Games (-125)