Pick of the Day: Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Roland Garros
These two have played some very close matches on clay over the years, so don't be surprised if Badosa pushes Sabalenka in Paris.
On Saturday, June 1, Paula Badosa will take on world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka at Roland Garros. This is a meeting between two very close friends, which could make for an interesting on-court battle. These players should be very familiar with one another, which is why I’m expecting a highly competitive match. And wouldn't you know that the Over, on a 19.5-game total, is available at reasonable -138 odds.
It’s hard to overlook the fact that Badosa was giving Sabalenka a run for her money in Stuttgart last month. The Spaniard had to retire from that match at 3-3 in the third set, which was a shame considering she won the second set, 6-4. But that match hadn’t even ended and went Over 19.5 games, and each of their previous two clay-court matches went Over this mark (both being in Stuttgart).
The interesting thing about Stuttgart is that it plays quite a bit faster than Roland Garros. Those conditions would favor a power player like Sabalenka, but Badosa was able to keep things close, and she should be able to do the same on the slower stuff. Badosa has a big serve and a lot of power herself, so it’s not like she doesn’t like faster conditions. Overall, she has won nearly 70% of her career matches on clay. This is her best surface, and I feel that her ability to move well on the terre battue will be a real asset here.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Belarusian were to emerge victorious in this match, of course. After all, she’s as high as a -380 favorite in some spots. She’s also behind only Iga Swiatek on the odds board to win this entire tournament. But at the same time, I don’t see Sabalenka cruising to a win. Sabalenka called Badosa “such a great fighter” earlier this week. That fight should help bettors cash some Over tickets.
Pick: Over 19.5 Games (-138)