Pick of the Day: Roman Safiullin vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Montreal

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had a rough couple of months. The Spaniard has had trouble staying healthy, and he’s also just 6-8 since the start of April. Davidovich Fokina looked like he was starting to find his game in Atlanta, earning wins over Arthur Cazaux and Reilly Opelka in his first two matches. But since then, Davidovich Fokina has lost two of his last three.

His most recent defeat was concerning: Davidovich Fokina was up 4-1 in the final set against Flavio Cobolli in Washington D.C. That ended up getting pushed to a tiebreaker, where Davidovich Fokina then squandered a 6-2 lead. Davidovich Fokina also happened to look gassed throughout that match, and his game was all over the place. That makes it hard to understand how he’s a favorite to beat Roman Safiullin at the National Bank Open in Montreal.

Even at 100 percent health, I’m not sure I’d like Davidovich Fokina to beat Safiullin. Foki can be really tough to beat when he’s running hot, but he’s a shaky server and can leak errors from the baseline because of his aggressive style of play. Well, Safiullin is similar in that he's also aggressive. But for my money, the Russian is a little more trustworthy. Safiullin is also entering this tournament on a decent run of form.

Safiullin’s recent record might tell a different story, but he found something at the Olympics. Safiullin earned straight-set wins over Alejandro Tabilo and Tomas Martin Etcheverry, two established clay-court players. He also played a pretty good match in a straight-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz. That should give Safiullin some confidence as he heads back to hard courts, which are definitely the Russian’s best surface.

This is a match that I feel would be closer to 50-50 if Davidovich Fokina was in shape and playing with confidence. But as things stand, I strongly believe Safiullin should be favored. These plus-money odds are very enticing.

Pick: Safiullin To Win (+110)