Rome Crisis Center, Day 3
Hi everyone. We're into the third day in Rome with the second round under way. There are still matches to catch up on after bad weather earlier in the week - and the prospect of more rain to come, though today's weather looks bright so far. At least one match started after midnight last night, in an effort to keep the schedule from being derailed. Today's Order of Play is on this link. Novak Djokovic won his match last night; the rest of the top four are scheduled to play this afternoon on Stadio Pietrangeli.
I noticed some speculation in the comments section overnight regarding the near-term prospect of Andy Murray taking over the number three spot from Novak Djokovic - a spot held by the Serb for most of the past two years. The good news for the Scot is that this week his prospects are mostly on his own racquet - that is, he doesn't need to rely on the defending champion losing his title, though that would also gain him a rankings boost.
Let's look at this more closely, because the current situation within the ATP rankings is a little more complicated than usual, given the shift from the old points system to the new (with players being more heavily rewarded for winning tournaments, relatively speaking). Also tournaments this year are being played a week earlier than they were in the 2008 calendar, which (because points are held for a full 52 weeks) means that in some weeks players will hold points from playing the same Masters Series event in both 2008 and 2009. Madrid replaces Hamburg in the calendar this year, but is also a week earlier; points from Hamburg 2008 are for all practical purposes being defended in Madrid this year.
Djokovic is currently on a total of 9160 ranking points to Murray's 9050. He will lose 1000 points from winning Rome 2008 on Monday 11th May, which means that his points total will drop to 8160 plus whatever he wins in Rome this year, and at his new tournament in Belgrade (an ATP 250 event), which begins next week. As of that 11th May date he can achieve a maximum of 9320 points, if he wins both tournaments. Murray loses just 70 points on the same day, so will be on 8980 points plus whatever he's won in Rome - a maximum of 9980 points.
This means that even if Djokovic wins Rome again this year, Murray can overtake him for sure by reaching the semifinal this week, which would put him on 9340 points. If Djokovic were to be the losing finalist, he'd be on a maximum of 8920 points on Monday week (May 11th). In that scenario Murray doesn't need to win any points in Rome to get to number three.
Then in Madrid Djokovic has 450 points to defend (from Hamburg 2008) versus Murray's 150, after already playing for two weeks straight.
To me it's looking pretty likely that Andy Murray will be ranked number three sooner rather than later.
As always, enjoy today's tennis.
- Rosangel Valenti
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