Sinner, Swiatek, Sunshine: Five questions about the Miami Open

Indian Wells is a little more than 48 hours old, and the second half of the Sunshine Swing, in Miami, is already upon us. The hard courts get a little quicker, and the air gets a little thicker in South Florida, but the player fields are much the same, with a few prominent exceptions: Kei Nishikori and Simona Halep, who had her doping suspension reduced last week, are in. Novak Djokovic is out.

Now that the 96 ATP and 96 WTA singles players have been reshuffled, here are five questions that pop out from the draws:

1. Who has the tougher road to the men’s final, Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner?

Djokovic’s exit gives Miami a futuristic feel on the ATP side. This may be what the draws at majors and Masters will look like in the coming years, after Djokovic retires and Alcaraz and Sinner enter their primes.

Alcaraz won this title two years ago, but Sinner beat him in the semis in 2023. A rematch in the final would be popular, but the Spaniard and Italian face their share of obstacles.

Sinner has No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev on his side, while Alcaraz has No. 4 Alexander Zverev. The Russian is the defending champion in Miami; the German reached the final in 2018.

As far as early-round challenges go, Sinner could face one from an in-form Tommy Paul in the fourth round, and either Andrey Rublev or Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz may have to deal with Ben Shelton’s supersonic serve in the round of 16, and Hubert Hurkacz, who won this title in 2021, in the quarters.

2. Does Iga Swiatek have another Sunshine Double in her?

The Double is rare: only 11 players have done it on both tours. One of them, though, is Swiatek. Two years ago, she tore through Indian Wells, and then turned around and did the same thing in Miami. She didn’t drop a set, and beat Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka in lopsided fashion along the way.

Swiatek has a good chance to do it again. She’s close to her 2022 level right now; once she gets a sliver of a lead, she’s running away with her matches and dropping second-set bagels. She could face the woman who beat her at the Australian Open, Linda Noskova, in the third round, and Gauff is in her half of the draw. But her nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko, isn’t.

3. What are the first-round matchups to watch?

• Simona Halep vs. Paula Badosa. The 32-year-old Romanian hasn’t played since the fall of 2022, but she’s 2-0 against Badosa, a former Top 5 player now ranked 80th.
• Kei Nishikori vs. Sebastian Ofner. Last year, Nishikori came back from hip surgery, only to hurt his knee in his first event. Now, at 34, he’s coming back again.
• Darwin Blanch vs. Tomas Machac. Blanch, a wildcard, is a 16-year-old American who trains at the Juan Carlos Ferrero Academy. The winner plays Rublev.
• Andy Murray vs. Matteo Berrettini
• Venus Williams vs. Diana Shnaider
• Angelique Kerber vs. Sloane Stephens
• Naomi Osaka vs. Elisabeth Cocciaretto. The winner plays Elina Svitolina.

4. Can the Americans take advantage of their last home event until mid-summer?

It’s now or never for much of the U.S. men’s contingent. After Miami, the tour shifts quickly to European red clay, and stays there for two months. That’s the place and the surface where promising American seasons traditionally go to die, so the time to make hay is now.

The upside is that the European players start thinking about heading home in Miami, and they’ve been known to tap out if they fall behind. Which Americans might be well-placed to take advantage of that?

Shelton’s path takes him through Lorenzo Musetti and on to Alcaraz. Sebastian Korda may face Hurkacz in the fourth round. Chris Eubanks may play Zverev, and Taylor Fritz is near Nicolas Jarry and Casper Ruud. Unfortunately for Paul and Frances Tiafoe, they’ll face off against each other if each wins his first match.

5. Who’s going to win?

Swiatek is justifiably the heavy favorite. Winning 12 straight matches over four weeks isn’t easy, but there’s no one I would come close to favoring in a one-on-one against Iga right now.

As for the men, Sinner has already been a finalist in Miami twice, so he obviously likes the slightly quicker courts, and they could help him in a final against Alcaraz. He didn’t win last week, but he also seems too mentally solid right now to fall apart because of it.