The Last Hurdle
One of my more agreeable chores at a major tournament is checking in with some of my friends in the international press, the hard-charging foreign reporters who are fonts of information about the players they track so diligently.
Some of the more iconic players, like Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal, are so closely watched and followed by my press peers that the job amounts to formal stalking, although it goes on with blessing of the subjects. I suppose that's an oxymoron, but you know what I mean.
The theory that has cropped up in the ether of the fan's world these past few weeks is that Robin Soderling is the big, scary guy. If you didn't know better, you'd think Roger and Rafa were holding hands, hiding under the tournament director's desk, when the draw was made. But after talking with my pal Alejandro Delmas of El As and others, I'm convinced that's not really the case, although it makes for a spicy narrative. Rafa expected Federer to beat Soderling, while acknowledging that the major difference between the Soderling of roughly a year ago and today is, simply, confidence.
Of course, you underestimate confidence at your peril.
But I see a bigger problem for Soderling than the one-two punch of Federer and Nadal, and it's name is Berdych. Tomas Berdych, of the Czech Republic. Soderling is in that most delicate of situations today. He's beaten the top-seed and rekindled the seductive idea that he's the bane of champions. But in order to get at his next champion, Nadal, and don the radiant mantle of the ultimate spoiler, he's going to have to beat a guy whose game matches up pretty well with his own. And that amounts to serious pressure for the guy who most people are expecting, or at least hoping, makes the final to challenge Rafa.
I can think of many players with whom I'd rather have a hitting contest than Soderling, but Berdych isn't one of them. And I don't think Berdych is particularly cowed by the free-swinging Swede. So Soderling faces a significant hurdle if he hopes to repeat as a finalist here, and get another crack at Rafa. I don't think it will be an easy one to clear.
The match-up between Rafa and Jurgen Melzer is less intriguing. Nadal leads the H2H, 2-0, both wins on hard court. Both in straight sets, with Nadal losing a grand total of eight games in those four sets. I wonder what Jurgen requested for his last meal yesterday evening? I'm guessing bratwurst, with a side of red cabbage.
Enjoy the semifinals, everyone.
-- Pete