The Pick: Karolina Pliskova v. Danielle Collins, AO second round

In the third round of the Yarra Valley Classic last Wednesday, Danielle Collins dispatched Karolina Pliskova in two tie-break sets. Exactly one week later, Pliskova will get a chance to avenge that loss in a phenomenal second round match-up.

There’s something about Australia that brings out the best in Collins. Perhaps the quicker-than-normal surface rewards her punishing groundstrokes, or maybe it’s her affinity for the country—Collins' boyfriend is from Victoria. Whatever it is, the 2019 semifinalist certainly comes to play Down Under.

Meanwhile, Pliskova will try to avoid another early exit at the majors; after reaching the semifinals in Melbourne Park two years ago, the Czech hasn't made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam in six subsequent attempts. While there’s no shame in losing to a player of Collins’ caliber, a loss would be yet another major disappointment for the world No. 6.

In any sport, defeating a quality opponent twice in a row is a difficult task, and even tougher to repeat in the span of one week—but not if Collins continues to crush the ball like this.

The American’s ability to absorb pace will be crucial. Here, she uses an extremely wide stance to redirect Pliskova’s massive forehand return.

As always, Pliskova will need to serve well and play aggressive, first-strike tennis.

The longer the rally, the more likely it is that Pliskova’s movement will be exposed. Standing at about 6’1", Pliskova must come forward and use her intimidating net presence to keep points short.

According to the oddsmakers, Pliskova is a slight -125 favorite. She played well the first time around, but Collins was more clutch in the big moments. While this match is the definition of a toss-up, I expect the Czech’s desire to avenge last week’s loss will make all the difference. Never underestimate the revenge factor.

The Pick: Karolina Pliskova