The Pick, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Rebecca Marino vs. Daria Saville, Washington
In D.C., the Aussie has defeated top seed Jessica Pegula, while the Canadian qualifier's fighting spirit has been on display all week.
World No. 88 Daria Saville picked up a straight-set win over world No. 7 Jessica Pegula at the Citi Open on Wednesday. Pegula was the top seed in the draw, and won this event back in 2019. It was a pretty surprising result to see the American go down this early, but it gives us some insight on Saville's current form. Now, in Friday's quarterfinals, she'll face world No. 111 Rebecca Marino, who went through qualifying and then earned wins over Venus Williams and Andrea Petkovic.
While Saville’s win over Pegula was undoubtedly impressive, a lot of it came down to the American losing confidence in her serve. Pegula dropped serve in three consecutive games spanning from the end of the first set to the opening of the second. Marino likely won’t give Saville that many opportunities, as she has only been broken a total of three times in her six sets in the main draw.
Considering how good of a job both players are doing with the ball on their racquets, it’s hard not to see this match turning into an extended battle. Even in a straight-set win over Pegula, Saville played 22 games. And that win came directly after Mirjam Bjorklund forced Saville to a deciding-set tiebreaker. Meanwhile, if you include the qualifying rounds of this tournament, Marino has now played four consecutive matches that have gone to a deciding set (and five if you include her loss at Wimbledon).
It's also nice knowing that both players have proven that they can handle the uncomfortable humidity that has doomed quite a few players this week in D.C.. Saville has already played two long matches, while Marino has done it four times in a row.
With all of that in mind, we’re thinking that the best bet is to go Over the 21.5-game total. If you’re feeling somewhat bold, you can play the Over 2.5 sets at +130 odds. That’s a much better payout, but those that have been reading The Pick regularly have built up enough of a bankroll to play this a little safer and lay the small juice. Playing the game total protects us in the event that this game match doesn’t go the distance but instead features two long, competitive sets.
The Pick: Over 21.5 Games (-135)