The Pick: Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, US Open third round
The Canadian has the higher ceiling, but the Spaniard is the safer bet in this exciting third-round pick-em.
Roberto Bautista Agut and Felix Auger-Aliassime will face off in an exciting third-round clash of styles. According to the oddsmakers, RBA is an ever-so-slight -115 favorite over FAA.
The 21-year-old Canadian hasn't been a bettor's darling. As talented as he is, he's endured some awful stretches where he seemingly can’t put the ball in the court. And in this particular matchup against one of the game’s most solid players, FAA’s sometimes-erratic play puts the Spaniard in a very winnable position by simply doing what he does best—making balls.
Bautista Agut will not typically hurt you with his backhand, but he hits his forehand like a brick. It’s unwise to target his forehand without an extreme purpose, as he puts his go-to shot exactly where he wants nearly every time.
According to Dominic Thiem, this week’s player-analyst on Tennis Channel Live, RBA is the most underrated player remaining in the tournament.
He can go far in every Grand Slam, on every surface. But not many people are talking about him. He also beat Novak already several times. For me, he's the most underrated player in the draw.
With a 30-18 record on the year, simply betting against FAA every time would turn a profit, as he is typically listed as a massive favorite against anyone ranked outside the Top 20. Couple that with his inability to control his unforced error count, as well as an extremely stingy opponent, and practically even money for RBA is a fantastic bet.
There’s always a chance FAA shows up and shows out, but Thiem has forgotten more about tennis than we’ll ever know—so let’s take his word and pick the Spaniard.
The Pick: Roberto Bautista Agut -115