The Picks Game - Semi Finals

One of the more interesting premises for a movie in recent years was the way infinitessimal changes lead to life changing outcomes.

The movie was Sliding Doors, starring Gwynneth Paltrow and John Hannah.  In one part of the movie's universe, a London woman catches an underground train.  In another, she misses it.  Her lives diverge - then later converge, then diverge again.

Tennis gives us a chance to explore the impact of the infinitessimal.  At 15-40, 1-1, down a set in Hamburg, Roger Federer's topspin backhand clipped the top of the net, barely deviating in its path as the rally continued.  Federer would win the point, hold...and you know the rest.

In this universe.  Perhaps there's another universe where the ball clipped the net a little harder, and bounced out.  Federer's rocky road through Hamburg ended with a 6-2, 6-2 drubbing, and Nadal showed once again he was unbeatable on clay.  Now, in that universe, the two men stand poised to enter the later rounds of the competition again, but Rafa's streak is 86 and counting.

In our Picks Game, we explore how far the future is mapped out for us.  The Tribe's current record is 44/11, or 80% successful (one match, at 50/50, wasn't scored to the Tribe).

So far, the Tribe has been split down the middle (with fewer than 60% of pickers siding with one player or the other) just 4 times in 56 matches.  By contrast, the Tribe had a higher than 90% confidence that a given player would win 28 times - or exactly half the time.

And you know what (and I find this quite stunning) - the Tribe was right every single one of those 28 times.  In other words, every time more than 90% of us said "I think player A will defeat player B," player A duly won.

Mind, this wasn't just Nadal - Montanes.  This was Robredo - Tipsarevic, Jankovic - Vaidisova, Serena Williams - Safina.

Well, we have two more chances to read ahead into the future.  Here are some of our current leaders:

Percentages

patrick  31/0,  Macca  39/2,  Sahadev  36/2,  Split Infinitive  35/2 and GSte  29/2

(kelsey went 16/0 in R16, but I don't think he/she entered other rounds)

Wins

lilly potter (45/7) and Ali C (45/10), the Tribe (44/11) (!) and ginger (44/9), The Original French(ie) (43/9) and Luke (43/13), fleaman (42/9), Ray Stonada (42/9) and Andrew (42/13), gvgirl (41/9), mmmm8 and mic (41/10) and gerrynjapan (41/11).

As always, if you thing I've made a complete Horlicks of the arithmetic, please let me know.

Men

Federer  -  Davydenko
Djokovic  -  Nadal

Women

Henin  -  Jankovic
Ivanovic - Sharapova

--- Andrew