The Sky Above
by Pete Bodo
I was down at breakfast this morning in the hotel, trying too finish Robert Parker's novel, Brimstone, when the gray skies opened up and the rain came down in buckets. My first thought was of. . . Rafael Nadal.
That's how far we've come. Never has so much been made of the meteorological conditions on the day of a big match. And while I understand the reasoning behind the role weather might play in today's men's final at Roland Garros, it's not like the Oracle of Delphi has set up shop on the Boul St. Michel to inform one and all that if the court is damp, Robin Soderling will win the French Open today (for more on today's final, refer to today's "5 Questions" feature).
You might think so, though, if you're inclined to the Chicken Little school of bracketology, or even if you're just an overly stressed, alarmist Nadal fan. You know the reasoning, we've heard it articulated a thousand times this week: If it's wet (cold is just a bonus), Nadal will be in mortal danger.
I'm not buying it, although I think Rafa wlll be in mortal danger if he is. The theme seems to be in his head. And that kind of thing has been known to happen. Just look at how Bjorn Borg freaked out every time he had to play a night match at the U.S. Open. The process began innocently enough, with Borg announcing that he had trouble seeing the ball under the Flushing Meadows floodlights. Unfortunately, his coach (Lennart Bergelin), the camp followers, and the media picked up and ran with it. Before you know it, Borg had thunk himself out of any chance of winning a night match at the American championships.
I see parallels today, although I don't think Nadal's case is nearly as advanced. Just how great is Soderling's record on wet clay courts (btw, it will be warm and humid today, no matter what else happens)? Got me. But I'm unaware that he becomes a red-dirt demon the moment it begins to drizzle.
Oh, sure he beat Nadal on a slow, damp clay court on a chilly day here last year. But a pigeon once pooped on my shoulder at 7 am on a bluebird day a week ago; it doesn't mean I've avoided going outside until after 7, and only venture forth on cloudy days.
I don't mean to disparage Soderling's chances with these thoughts. The guy has withstood the test; he's established himself as, presently, the most dangerous if not necessarily best male player on tour never to have won a major (he's still got plenty of time, though). Sure he beat Federer here a few days ago on a damp court, and The Mighty Fed spoke about how the tough conditions didn't help his cause. But the Federer I've seen these past few months has been presenting his backside to any passer-by on the tour, inviting him to bend one like Beckham.
Do we forget that Soderling, a strapping guy with a lot of body parts to move around (some of which may be a bit squeaky, after that Berdych set-to), is facing, probably, the greatest clay-court player alive, and probably any dead one Shirley MacLaine might channel for us?
Sheesh. You'd think Nadal was 2-18 against top 10 players when days when an umbrella is in order.
There's another interesting dimension here: As a first-time finalist last year, Soderling was under no pressure, yet Federer, playing for stakes as high as anyone has in a long time, took care of business in pretty routine fashion. Sure, you can say Soderling was in unfamiliar territory; but facing the prospect of losing back-to-back French Open finals, as well as the luxury of having a second chance, bring a certain degree of pressure as well. And it won't be a Nikolay Davydenko or Fernando Verdasco grappling with him.
Rafa said the other day that he likes a hard, dry court and sunny skies, partly because they enable his topspin strokes and kick serves to leap higher off the court. That confused me, slightly. I thought that at Madrid in 2009, the consensus was that the court (which is altitude) played faster, and that's why Federer beat Nadal in the final.
Oh, well. We all have a tendency to adjust the facts to suit our desires and expectations.
There is no meaningful body of statistics suggesting that Soderling is considerably better on damp clay under cold, cloudy skies than there is that Nadal plays below his capability under those conditions. To me, how the weather affects each man's confidence is more of a factor than will be the actual conditions. But an even bigger factor will be the extent to which Soderling can belt untouchable winners and returns that put Nadal on the defensive.
I believe that Soderling can win, and not just because he's a stud. After yesterday's events, only a fool would think otherwise. But it's a very tall order, and we'll see if lightning strikes twice in the same place. But there we are, talking about the weather again.
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For more on clay-court tennis, Rafael Nadal and his history at Roland Garros, check out my new e-book, The Clay Ran Red.