Three to See, Miami Open Day 3: Sonego vs. Thiem; Azarenka vs. Giorgi; Rybakina vs. Kalinskaya

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Miami Open Women's Picks To Win

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Dominic Thiem

What happened to the Thiem revival of 2023? Many of us thought that the 2020 US Open champion’s return to top form would be one of the prime storylines of this season. But the story has yet to begin. If anything, Thiem, who is 1-6 on the year, has regressed. The only positive is that two of his recent losses, to Adrian Mannarino in Indian Wells and Thiago Monteiro in Rio, came in third-set tiebreakers.  

The last time Thiem faced Sonego, on clay in a Rome a season ago, he also lost in a third-set breaker. Perhaps the Austrian’s best hope is that the Italian hasn’t been on fire himself in 2023; he’s lost in the first round in five of the eight tournaments he’s played.

Thiem and Sonego are 1-1 in their head-to-head, and it’s anyone’s guess who has the edge right now. I’m going to keep guessing that the Thiem revival will start somewhere, someday this season. Maybe Thursday is the day. Winner: Thiem

Victoria Azarenka vs. Camila Giorgi

Azarenka has a long and sporadically successful history in Miami. Way back in 2009, she beat Serena Williams 6-3, 6-1 for the title. Two years later, she beat Maria Sharapova 6-1, 6-4 in the final, and in 2016 she completed a Sunshine Double by beating Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-3, 6-2. If Vika makes it to the final weekend here, she’s money. Can she get back there again, at 33, seven years after she her last title run?

Giorgi isn’t the easiest, or most predictable, of first-round opponents. In Indian Wells, she took a quick set from Jessica Pegula, then lost the next two sets just as quickly. In her first match in Miami, she double faulted 14 times, but managed to edge Kaia Kanepi in a three-tiebreaker epic. Azarenka leads Giorgi 2-1 in their head-to-head, but they haven’t played since 2019. Winner: Azarenka

Elena Rybakina vs. Anna Kalinskaya

With Iga Swiatek’s withdrawal, Rybakina becomes perhaps the biggest name in the women’s draw. She’s the Wimbledon champ, she’s the Australian runner-up, she just won Indian Wells, and she has already beaten Swiatek twice this year. No surprise that she gets the night-cap slot inside Hard Rock Stadium on Thursday.

There she’ll face a contemporary and former countrywoman in the 64th-ranked Kalinskaya. A few years ago, not much separated these two. In fact, Kalinskaya won their only previous pro meeting, in a 25K in 2019. Rybakina has obviously stepped on the gas since then, but Kalinskaya has had a slight uptick in 2023 as well. We’ll see if it’s enough to make Rybakina remember their last match. Winner: Rybakina