Three to See, Wimbledon Day 5: Djokovic vs. Kecmanovic; Kerber vs. Mertens; Alcaraz vs. Otte

WATCH: Novak Djokovic speaks with the media after his 2022 Wimbledon second round win.

Novak Djokovic vs. Miomir Kecmanovic

The Big 3 have always benefited from the deference of their countrymen. Roger Federer is 23-3 against Stan Wawrinka. Rafael Nadal was 26-6 against his closest Spanish rival, David Ferrer. And Djokovic was 13-1 against his old Davis Cup teammate Viktor Troicki.

When your opponent is a friend—as well as a national hero who could probably become president of your country if he wanted—it’s a little harder to find that killer instinct. Can Kecmanovic, a rising 22-year-old Serb, find it when he faces Djokovic on Friday?

They’ve played twice, both times on clay in Belgrade, and Djokovic has won both times; though Kecmanovic did take the first set in their most recent meeting in May. But even if you leave out the psychological aspect of this matchup, it still favors Djokovic. He’s won 82 matches at Wimbledon; Kecmanovic has won four. He has the more complete game, and the better backhand.

Kecmanovic does have a forehand that can hurt Djokovic, and he is 13 years younger. But an upset would require an extremely focused and nerveless effort from him, for an extremely long period of time. I doubt he can make himself do that against his nation’s greatest athlete. Winner: Djokovic

Angelique Kerber vs. Elise Mertens

It’s only the third round, but we’ve already reached the “one of these players is going to be a Wimbledon finalist” stage in the women’s bottom half. There wasn’t a lot of star power there to begin with, but with the exits of two high seeds, Anett Kontaveit and Danielle Collins, as well as Garbiñe Muguruza, there’s less now. There are two Top 5 seeds left, Ons Jabeur and Maria Sakkari, but neither has made a Slam final before. That spells opportunity, career-changing opportunity, for the other 14 players who are still alive in this section.

Kerber is only the 15th seed, but she’s someone who has not only made, but won, a major final—three of them, in fact, including Wimbledon in 2018. The 34-year-old tends to sense when she has a chance to get back there; last year she came through a somewhat depleted section to make the semis before losing to Ashleigh Barty. 

Mertens, the No. 24 seed, has had some success at Wimbledon, where she’s 9-4 and reached the fourth round in 2019. Maybe more importantly, she is coming off a win over Panna Udvardy in which she saved six match points. Mertens, who has a 1-0 record against Kerber, could feel as if she’s playing with house money on Friday. Winner: Kerber

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Oscar Otte

This first matchup between the 19-year-old Spaniard and the 28-year-old German will feature its share of jaw-dropping, as well as head-scratching, shot-making.

Alcaraz, as you know by now, can tattoo the ball as hard as anyone from either side, and then throw in the most deceptive and perfectly measured of drop shots. Otte, as you might not know, is something of a grass-court specialist who has much more unorthodox strokes than Alcaraz, including an abbreviated serve, but who can slash winners with anyone on the right day. He lost a memorable five-setter to Andy Murray at Wimbledon last year, and this year he comes in having reached the semifinals in Stuttgart and Halle.

Alcaraz is still finding his way on grass; he barely survived a first-round encounter with another German, Jan-Lennard Struff. Figuring out the 6’4” Otte’s odd, grass-centric game should make for a challenging and intriguing next test. Winner: Otte