Week in Preview: Two races will be run at the Paris Masters this week

In past years, we heard the phrase “limping to the finish” a lot at this late stage of the season. By the time the Paris Masters rolled around, after 10 months of non-stop tennis, the ATP tour could look like a march of the walking wounded. For the most part, that hasn’t been true in 2019. While Roger Federer says he isn’t sure whether he’ll play in Bercy after his title run in Basel this past week (Editor's Note: he will not), Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal look ready for the final November push, as do the young workhorses chasing after them, Daniel Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini.

That’s good news for the season’s final Masters 1000 event, where two separate races will be run: Nadal will try to hold off Djokovic in their battle for the year-end No. 1, while half a dozen players will make last-gasp efforts to qualify for the tour’s year-end championships in London.

When it comes to his year-end race against Nadal, there’s good news and bad news for Djokovic as he arrives in Paris. The good news is that he has won this tournament four times, while Rafa has reached the final here just once, in 2007. The bad news is that to reduce his 1,100-point deficit to Nadal, Djokovic basically has to win a fifth title here—last year Djokovic made the final at this event, while Nadal missed it entirely.

Djokovic could use the motivation, because his quarter isn’t a cakewalk. He might play Diego Schwartzman, who is trying to qualify for London, in the third round; and either Tsitsipas or Roberto Bautista Agut, each of whom owns multiple wins over Djokovic, in the quarters. Bautista Agut is also just 130 points shy of the No. 8 spot in London.

And if Djokovic does make it to the semis, another player who has had his number of late, Medvedev, may be waiting.

First-round match to watch: Taylor Fritz vs. Frances Tiafoe

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Semifinalist: Djokovic

Medvedev has been a machine since Wimbledon, reaching six straight finals and winning two straight Masters 1000 events. But the grind finally seemed to catch to catch up with him a couple of weeks ago, when he pulled out of the Kremlin Cup after winning in Shanghai. Was the well-earned time away enough to restore his energy? If so, there’s no reason the 23-year-old Russian can’t win another big tournament. Still, nothing comes easily in events like this: To reach the semis, he may have to beat John Isner, who reached the final in Bercy in 2016; and Dominic Thiem, who has played some of the best hard-court tennis of his career in winning two 500-level events this fall.

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Semifinalist: Medvedev

(Editor's Note: Federer has withdrawn from the tournament.)

As I write this on Sunday, Federer is the top seed in this section, but his participation is still in doubt. He’s coming off his 10th win in Basel, and wants to be ready to play in London in two weeks. If he does decide to play Bercy, he’ll have what would seem to be a manageable path to the semifinals. He’ll start against either Nikoloz Basilashvili or Radu Albot; could play Gael Monfils in the third round; and Alexander Zverev or Fabio Fognini in the quarterfinals. Zverev, who is currently hanging onto the No. 7 spot in the race to London, could use a win or three after going out in the first round in Basel.

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Semifinalist: Zverev

Is this the year Nadal finally wins Bercy? By this point in the season, the grind has usually worn him down, and he has won precious few indoor events over the course of his career. Which means that if it’s ever going to happen, it’s probably going to be now. Nadal seems healthy, he has a year-end No. 1 ranking to play for, and he’s coming off the twin highs of a US Open title and his own wedding. Rafa’s draw also could be worse. The first seed he could play is Stan Wawrinka, who had to pull out of Basel last week with a back issue after a tough win over Tiafoe. If Rafa gets to the quarters, he might face either Karen Khachanov, the defending champion, or Berrettini, who is clinging to the eighth and final spot in London. Right now he leads Bautista Agut by 130 points.

First-round match to watch: Andrey Rublev vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

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Semifinalist: Nadal

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Medvedev; Zverev d. Nadal

Final: Djokovic d. Zverev