Who Will Win: Aryna Sabalenka or Zheng Qinwen, 2024 Australian Open women's final

The first Grand Slam of 2024 will be an intriguing affair between two of the game’s heaviest hitters. No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka has conducted an impressive defense of her 2023 title, rolling into the championship match without dropping a set and avenging her US Open loss to Coco Gauff in the semifinals. No. 12 seed Zheng Qinwen stands across the net, having made good on her obvious potential to navigate a chaotic top half to reach the biggest final of her career.

Who will win the 2024 Australian Open? David Kane and Stephanie Livaudais discuss the finalists in a Drop Shot Debate:

David's Pick: Aryna Sabalenka

Kane: Last year’s Australian Open final favored power over finesse, and we appear teed up for more of the same as Sabalenka is back in the final against an equally aggressive challenger in Zheng. A major title defense has long been a landmine for even the most mentally tough competitors, and yet Sabalenka has enjoyed a near-flawless homecoming in Melbourne, racing into the semifinals with the loss of just 16 games. But it was her semifinal against Gauff that was the clearest display of her massive mental strides. After struggling mightily in major semifinals—losing five of her first six—she withstood a first-set wobble to outplay her teenaged rival in all the key moments to put herself a win away from a second Australian Open title.

All that stands in her way is Zheng, someone she beat decisively en route to the US Open final last summer. In a match-up of similar game styles, Sabalenka does everything Zheng does just a little bit better: her serve and forehand are steadier and she’s more willing to play all-court tennis, following shots to the net. Battle-tested but physically fresh, Sabalenka looks poised to leave Melbourne on a 14-match winning streak and in pole position to reclaim world No. 1 from Iga Swiatek.

READ MORE:  Aryna Sabalenka avenges US Open loss to Coco Gauff in powerful Australian Open final return

Steph's Pick: Zheng Qinwen

Livaudais: The stars would have to be in perfect alignment for a Zheng victory on Saturday—but it’s been all about destiny for the Chinese No. 1 throughout a dream fortnight. Ten years to the day after Li Na’s famous victory at an event that calls itself “the Grand Slam of Asia-Pacific”, Zheng took down qualifier Dayana Yastremska to reach her first major final.

Zheng emerged from the Australian Open’s ‘half of life’: She could have faced No. 5 Jessica Pegula in fourth round, No. 3 Elena Rybakina in quarters and No. 1 Iga Swiatek in semis, but early exits from those top seeds cleared the way for the 21-year-old. Zheng’s highest-ranked opponent was No. 54 Katie Boulter in the second round, and that could work in her detriment against a battle-tested Sabalenka who exorcized demons in her semifinal against Coco Gauff.

It could also mean Zheng has enough in the tank to swing freely and adopt a nothing-to-lose mentality while the pressure piles on her opponent’s shoulders. Both players own big serves and powerful forehands, but Sabalenka’s serve is the first to go when she’s feeling tight. She can’t afford a lapse in concentration against Zheng, the women’s tournament aces leader—who has already hit 48 to Sabalenka’s 24 in Melbourne.

READ MORE: Zheng Qinwen becomes second Chinese tennis player ever to reach a Grand Slam final