With Djokovic's Shanghai loss, Nadal will return to No. 1 in November
Rafa is guaranteed to overtake the Serbian regardless of how the two fare at next month's ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris.
Novak Djokovic will fall from No. 1 next month following an unsuccessful defense of his title at Shanghai, with Rafael Nadal moving into the top spot.
Djokovic was defending 1,000 points in Shanghai, but only adds back 180 following his quarterfinal defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas. That gives him 9,545 points going into the Rolex Paris Masters, compared to 9,225 points for Nadal, who has a sizable lead in the race for year-end No. 1.
Djokovic has not entered any events in between Shanghai and Paris, and is scheduled to play an exhibition against Nadal in Kazakhstan the week before Paris. He is also defending a combined 1,600 points at Paris and the Nitto ATP Finals, both of which will drop off his current total the week following Paris based on ATP rules.
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That means Djokovic will fall behind Nadal on November 4 even if he wins the Paris Masters, which offers 1,000 points to the winner. It functions as a gift to Nadal the week before the Spaniard's wedding. Nadal, who withdrew from Shanghai with a hand injury, is expected to return in Paris.
There could still be a tight contest for year-end No. 1 at The O2 in London, though that will depend on what the pair does in Paris. Nadal currently has a 1,280-point cushion over the Serbian. If Djokovic wins the title, he could trim Nadal's 2019 race lead down to a few hundred points, but Nadal could also wrap up the top spot if he puts together a deep run. A player can earn a maximum of 1,500 points at the ATP Finals by posting an undefeated 5-0 record.
The 33-year-old Nadal does not have any points to defend the rest of the season. He has not captured an indoor hard-court title since 2005, when Madrid was held on the surface.
